San Francisco Frontiers - Catholic Church's direction in the balance as vote conclave looms

Hailing from 70 countries across five continents, the group -- summoned following the death of Pope Francis on April 21 -- is the largest and the most international ever.

At stake is the direction of the Catholic Church, a 2,000-year-old institution with huge global influence but which is battling to adapt to the modern world and recover its reputation after the scandal of widespread child sex abuse by priests.

The 133 so-called "Princes of the Church" who will vote -- all those aged under 80, minus two who are absent for health reasons -- will gather on Wednesday afternoon under the frescoed splendour of the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican.

Voting once that day and four times a day thereafter until a pope is chosen, they will stay at the nearby Santa Marta guesthouse but are forbidden from contacting the outside world until they have made their choice.

They will inform the waiting world of their progress by burning their ballots and sending up smoke -- black if no candidate has reached the two-thirds majority of votes, or white if they have a winner.

On Monday morning, technicians installed red curtains on the balcony of St Peter's Basilica, where the new pontiff will make his first appearance.

At issue is whether the new pontiff will follow the popular Argentine pontiff's progressive line or whether the Holy See will pivot towards a more conservative traditionalist leader.

Francis, an energetic reformer from Buenos Aires, ran the Church for 12 years and appointed 80 percent of the current cardinal electors.

But experts caution they may not choose someone in his model, with many warning there could be surprises.

Vatican affairs specialist Marco Politi told AFP that, given the unknowns, the conclave could be "the most spectacular in 50 years".

- 'Calm the waters' -

Cardinals met on Monday morning for the latest in a series of preparatory meetings, so-called general congregations, and will gather again in the afternoon.

All cardinals are invited to these, not just those eligible to vote in the conclave, taking the opportunity to discuss the issues that will face Francis's successor.

"Nobody campaigns, for crying out loud. That would be extraordinarily stupid and indiscreet, and improper and counterproductive," said Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York.

"But you just want to get to know folks, and it works well," he said on his own podcast.

Among the pilgrims and sightseers who gathered in the square on Monday, opinions varied widely about who could or should take over.

"Maybe more of Pope Francis than Pope Benedict," said German visitor Aurelius Lie, 36.

"As long as he's not too conservative (and) influenced by modern political leaders -- (Giorgia) Meloni, (Donald) Trump," he said, referring to the Italian prime minister and the US president.

"Maybe the Church will be thinking: 'We need a tough pope now to deal with these people.' But their terms will end in a couple of years."

But Canadian priest Justin Pulikunnel did not hide his frustration at the direction Francis tried to take the Church, saying he personally sought a return to a more traditional leadership.

"Well, I hope and I pray that the new pope will kind of be a source of unity in the Church and kind of calm the waters down after almost a dozen years of destabilisation and ambiguity," he said on Sunday.

- 'Changing world' -

The conclave begins on Wednesday afternoon and could continue for days, weeks or even months -- although both Francis and Benedict XVI -- who was pope from 2005 until his resignation in 2013 -- were elected within two days.

Italy's Pietro Parolin, who was secretary of state under Francis, is one of the favourites, as is Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem.

Among the so-called "papabili" are also Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines and Hungarian conservative Peter Erdo.

Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako of Iraq told reporters before Monday's meetings that he wanted "a pastor, a father who preserves the unity of the Church and the integrity of the faith but who also knows the challenges of today".

"The world is always changing. Every day there is news. The pope must read the signs of the times to have the right answer and not be closeted in his palace."

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Q.Taylor--SFF