San Francisco Frontiers - Five takeaways from Marine Le Pen verdict

Here are five takeaways from the verdict which appears set to mark a turning point in modern French political history:

- Far right defiant -

The verdict, as it stands, would mean that Le Pen would be unable to run in 2027 presidential elections where she would have her fourth and likely best ever chance of winning the Elysee.

But she can appeal, and if that fails, she already has a clear "plan-B" in the shape of the National Rally (RN) party leader Jordan Bardella, who would take her place as candidate.

Attacking what Le Pen described as a "political decision", the RN's leaders insisted that they could emerge from the situation strengthened.

"Don't be intimidated. Don't be demoralised... We will win," Le Pen said in a typically combative appearance before her MPs in parliament Tuesday.

Bardella predicted in a radio interview that "millions of people" who did not normally vote for the RN would switch their allegiance to Le Pen.

- Narrow but possible path -

Le Pen's sole realistic legal avenue is to appeal the verdict, which she has vowed to do rapidly, saying: "I will not let myself be eliminated."

But with the election due to be held in April 2027, the timeframe is narrow.

This second trial is not expected to take place for at least a year, with a decision several weeks later.

"Technically, it's probably possible; it needs to be examined and determined based on the judicial calendar," France's prosecutor general Remy Heitz told broadcaster RTL, adding that the dates would be known "probably fairly soon".

But, above all, there is no guarantee that the appeals court will issue a different decision than the lower court.

- Start of 2027 campaign -

There is little question that the RN, the biggest single party in the French parliament, will play a major role in the 2027 election whichever candidate it fields.

But the contours of the election are far from set, with President Emmanuel Macron not allowed to stand a third time. It is currently unclear which candidates will emerge to represent the centre and traditional right.

So far, Macron's former prime minister Edouard Philippe is the most high-profile figure to have thrown his hat into the ring from this camp.

Polls had forecast Le Pen was on course to easily win the first round of voting.

"This was the person who was in pole position in all pre-election polls. This is the first episode of this presidential election," said Frederic Dabi, director of the Ifop pollster. "This cannot fail to have very strong effects on the French."

- International cause celebre -

The Kremlin reacted even before the full verdict was announced, with Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov lamenting that "more and more European capitals are going down the path of violating democratic norms."

His comments were echoed by European far-right figures such as Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, while the world's richest person Elon Musk, an advisor to US President Donald Trump, chipped in, accusing the "radical left" of using their "standard playbook throughout the world".

"She was banned from running for five years and she is the leading candidate. That sounds like this country," said Trump, comparing her conviction to the "lawfare" he says was waged against him before becoming president.

For Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party, the verdict "targets the leader of a major party and deprives millions of citizens of representation."

- Spotlight on Bardella -

Even if Le Pen insists her 2027 dream is not over, the situation has inevitably increased attention on Bardella, 29, who unlike several other RN officials, was not under investigation in the case.

Le Pen has herself said that Bardella has the "capacity" to be president even if her protege refuses to publicly discuss the issue.

He said Tuesday that Le Pen "gave me everything in politics and the least I owe her is to continue the fight with her, until the end."

"The RN is not in a desperate situation, it affects the RN but they have someone," said Dabi, referring to Bardella.

Questions remain over his experience and whether he could hold his own in a presidential debate on policy against the likes of Philippe, although even critics acknowledge his media appearances are consistently smooth.

According to a Toluna Harris Interactive poll for RTL, conducted after the ruling, Bardella would garner up to 36 percent of votes in the first round of the presidential election, a score similar to that of Le Pen.

B.Johnson--SFF