San Francisco Frontiers - France's Le Pen faces verdict that could end presidential hopes

Three-time presidential candidate Le Pen, who scents her best-ever chance to win the French presidency in 2027, has vehemently denied any wrongdoing.

But prosecutors in the case, which also targets other top National Rally (RN) officials, have asked the court to issue Le Pen with both a jail sentence and a ban from holding public office.

The latter would come into force even if she appeals, disqualifying her from the presidential polls if the court follows the recommendation.

With her RN emerging as the single largest party in parliament after the 2024 legislative elections, Le Pen believes she has the momentum to finally take the Elysee in 2027 on the back of public concern over immigration and the cost of living.

She was also instrumental in toppling the government of then-prime minister Michel Barnier in a no-confidence vote last year, highlighting her influence.

If successful in 2027 she could join a growing number of hard- and far-right leaders around the world ranging from Giorgia Meloni in Italy to Hungary's Viktor Orban.

Should she fall, waiting in the wings is her protege and RN party leader Jordan Bardella, just 29, who is not under investigation in the case. But there are doubts even within the party whether he has the experience for a presidential campaign.

Le Pen took over as head of the then-National Front (FN) in 2011 but rapidly took steps towards making the party an electoral force and shaking off the legacy of its co-founder and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen who died earlier this year.

She renamed it the National Rally and embarked on a policy known as "dediabolisation" (de-demonisation) with the stated aim of making it electable for the top job.

- 'Political death' -

Besides Le Pen, her party is also in the dock.

The RN risks a fine of 4.3 million euros ($4.6 million), less than half of which would be suspended.

A total of 24 people are in the dock including nine former members of the European Parliament and their 12 parliamentary assistants.

Prosecutors last year asked that Le Pen be given five years in prison -- with three suspended and the two years potentially served outside of jail with a bracelet -- a 300,000 euro ($324,000) fine and a five-year ban on holding office.

To the general surprise of observers, they made the unusual request for the ban on holding office to come into force even pending an appeal, a process that might take years.

Le Pen had believed that any appeal would have protected her political career regardless of what happened.

"I think the prosecutor's intention is to deprive the French people of the ability to vote for those they wish," a shocked Le Pen said after the prosecutors' demands were announced, accusing them of seeking "my political death".

But prosecutors have insisted there has been no "harassment" of the RN.

They accuse the party of easing the pressure on the party's own finances by using all of the 21,000 euros monthly allowances to which MEPs were entitled to pay "fictitious" parliamentary assistants, who actually worked for the party.

They describe the alleged scam as unprecedented, both in terms of its duration from 2004 to 2016 and its scope, with an estimated 4.5 million euros in losses.

And prosecutors argue its "organised" nature was "strengthened" when Marine Le Pen took over as party leader in 2011.

The contours of France's 2027 presidential election have yet to be fully outlined.

With President Emmanuel Macron unable to stand again, it is far from clear who the strongest candidate will be from the centre and traditional right to succeed him.

One possible hopeful, powerful Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, has expressed discomfort at the prospect of his potential rival being disqualified.

It would be "profoundly shocking" if Le Pen could not stand, he said in November while still a backbencher.

V.Perez--SFF