San Francisco Frontiers - Bolsonaro trial: A political reset for Brazil?

The 70-year-old risks a prison sentence of 40 years and political banishment if found guilty of seeking to wrest power from Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after divisive elections the leftist won by a whisker.

With 79-year-old Lula's future also uncertain, is this the end of a political era?

- A martyr? -

"There is a concrete possibility that Bolsonaro will go to prison and in that sense his political future ends there," Daniela Campello, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a renowned think tank, told AFP.

Even if acquitted, Bolsonaro will need to overcome a ban on him holding public office until 2030 -- imposed after he was found guilty of spreading misinformation about Brazil's voting system during the 2022 campaign he lost.

The ex-army captain has insisted he will be the candidate of the political right, of which he remains the unchallenged leader, in elections in 2026.

Some opinion polls show him beating Lula, who has not stated whether he will seek re-election amid concerns over his health and low approval ratings.

Bolsonaro will likely campaign throughout his trial, expected to be held soon so as not to be seen to interfere with the election build-up.

"Bolsonaro will go as far as he can with his candidacy to keep his support base as enthusiastic as possible," said analyst Marcio Coimbra of the Casa Politica think tank.

Observers say he will likely pick his charismatic wife Michele or one of his politician sons as a running mate to continue the campaign in the event his candidacy is ruled out.

"If he is convicted, he could become a martyr," said Jose Niemeyer, a professor of international relations at Brazil's Ibmec University.

- Competition on the right? -

Among the Brazilian right and far-right -- which together hold the majority in parliament -- challengers to Bolsonaro may start arising as he fights the charges against him, analysts say.

One oft-mentioned name is that of Tarcisio de Freitas, governor of Sao Paulo state and a former minister in Bolsonaro's cabinet.

Others include Romeu Zema and Ratinho Junior, the governors of Minas Gerais and Parana states.

None has openly confirmed a presidential ambition, and all have publicly rallied around the boss.

"Bolsonaro is Brazil's main political leader and will remain so," Freitas wrote on X this week.

- Lula's loss? -

While Bolsonaro's trial should be a boon for Lula, it comes as his own approval rating has dropped to just 24 percent -- the lowest across his first two terms from 2003 and 2010, and the current one that started in 2023.

Public anger at high inflation is thought to be the main reason.

Analysts say Brazilian voter loyalty is pretty much set in stone regardless of who heads the ticket.

But if Bolsonaro disappears into the political abyss by 2026, the effect for Lula -- then 81 -- could be negative too, said Niemeyer.

Many voters see his main value as being an "antidote to Bolsonaro," the Ibmec professor said, and with his rival gone, Lula may start appearing replaceable.

S.Jackson--SFF