San Francisco Frontiers - Myanmar junta chief to make rare trip abroad to Bangkok

Min Aung Hlaing will travel to the Thai capital for a gathering of leaders of South Asian countries plus Myanmar and Thailand, junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told reporters, saying the visit offered "potential for peace".

Since seizing power in a February 2021 coup, he has mostly only travelled to his government's main arms supplier Russia, and its main economic partner and political backer China.

The surprise announcement came after Min Aung Hlaing insisted that a planned election will go ahead despite the conflict, in a speech to thousands of soldiers and dignitaries at the annual Armed Forces Day parade.

"He will attend. We are also trying to meet with leaders of BIMSTEC members countries separately," junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told journalists in the capital Naypyidaw.

"We expect to get potential development for Myanmar, potential for peace, potential for our economic development through this meeting."

He also said that Aung San Suu Kyi, whose civilian government was ousted in the 2021 coup, was in "good health".

She is serving a long prison sentence on various criminal charges her supporters say were cooked up to keep her out of politics.

Leaders from the seven BIMSTEC countries -- Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand -- are to meet for talks in Bangkok on Friday next week.

The event will mark a diplomatic breakthrough for the junta, which has seen its leaders and ministers shunned from meetings of the main Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional bloc in the wake of the coup.

ASEAN has led diplomatic efforts to end the Myanmar crisis, so far to no avail.

- December poll plan -

In his speech, Min Aung Hlaing condemned the array of armed groups fighting his rule as "terrorist insurgents" driven by "warlordism", after a year of seismic battlefield defeats.

Russian-made jets roared overhead and troops paraded though high-security Naypyidaw for the event, which has become progressively smaller in the four years of civil war since the military deposed Suu Kyi's civilian government.

Min Aung Hlaing said the authorities were sticking to a plan announced earlier this month that a long-promised election would go ahead -- despite much of the country being outside junta control.

The authorities are "making provisions to hold the general election this coming December", he said.

The junta has lost the key northern town of Lashio -- including a regional military command -- and swathes of the western Rakhine state since the last Armed Forces Day. It has also sought to conscript more than 50,000 people.

The civil war pits the junta's forces against both anti-coup guerillas and long-established ethnic minority armed groups.

- Increasing air strikes -

More than 3.5 million people are displaced by the conflict, half the population live in poverty and one million civilians face World Food Programme aid cuts next month following US President Donald Trump's slashing of Washington's humanitarian budget.

At the same time, trade sanctions have isolated Myanmar, making it increasingly dependent on China and Russia for economic and military support.

"The military has never been defeated this severely," said Jack Myint, a non-resident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

However, observers agree its grip on the centre is secure for now.

"The reality is they still have a superior supply of arms," said Myint, and they "don't have to defeat everyone to maintain control".

- Beijing's influence -

The past year has shown how strong a hand Beijing holds in Myanmar, with a willingness to play off the military and its opponents to pursue economic opportunities and stability on its borders, according to analyst Myint.

After public concern spiked in China over scam centres in Myanmar, thousands of workers were repatriated at Beijing's demand.

Western governments have said no election held under Myanmar's current military government can be free or fair.

But cliques in the junta are pushing for polls to weaken Min Aung Hlaing's position amid discord over his handling of the conflict, according to one US-based Myanmar analyst speaking on condition of anonymity.

Min Aung Hlaing serves as both acting president and commander-in-chief but he would have to relinquish one of those roles to hold an election.

"Min Aung Hlaing does not want to hold the election," the analyst said. "But generals close to him have warned that the situation is getting worse."

H.Davis--SFF