San Francisco Frontiers - Trump agenda faces reality check in Congress vote

Members of the lower house will vote on a resolution that would set the blueprint for the 2025 federal government budget, with $4.5 trillion for tax cuts and more than $1.5 trillion in spending cuts on the docket.

Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, a key Trump ally, has been working to corral his party's lawmakers to back the bill, which Democrats say will result in deep cuts to the Medicaid program that many lower-income US families rely on.

Johnson has been pressured from both sides of his own party, too. A number of Republican lawmakers suggest the proposed cuts do not go deep enough, while others are focused on stopping the ever-growing US national debt, and some worry about possible impacts on Medicaid.

Republicans across the country faced opposition to the resolution in its current form at town halls in their constituencies last week, US media reported, with most protests focusing on cuts to social welfare programs.

Trump's party has only a one-seat majority in the House, and the bill would require either every Republican member to vote for it, or for some Democrat members to flip.

On Monday, Johnson conceded that he would likely need to find help from across the aisle.

"There may be more than one," he said, referring to Republicans opposed to the bill. "But they'll get there.... It is very high stakes."

- 'Their responsibility' -

Looming over Tuesday's debate is the March 14 deadline for Congress to agree a budget proposal outline or face yet another US government shutdown.

For Democrats, this is test of their willingness to play hardball. So far, they are indicating they will refuse to bail out their opponents.

"The Republicans have the House, the Senate and the presidency," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN. "It is their responsibility to fund the government."

One of the Democratic demands is an assurance that funding approved by Congress is actually spent -- rather than being put on the chopping block by Trump's controversial billionaire adviser Elon Musk, whose so-called Department of Government Efficiency is seeking to slash through the entire US budget.

Republicans, however, have shown no sign of willingness to limit Trump's power, with some even seeking to codify Musk's cuts.

- 'Big beautiful bill' -

Ultimately, the debate on the resolution boils down to where the more than $1.5 trillion in cuts that will fund Trump's tax cuts and his signature programs will come from.

With the resolution in its current form, Republicans appear set to have to make huge cuts to Medicaid and other social safety net programs, including food stamps if they want to fund Trump's tax cuts.

Such a move would put Republican lawmakers in politically vulnerable districts in a weaker position for the midterm elections, due in two years.

Johnson, however, has suggested a different approach: factoring Musk's spending cuts and revenue earned from Trump's rash of trade tariffs into the budget to address the deficit.

"We have new revenue inputs that really ought to be factored into this," he said at a forum on Monday.

Last week, the Senate -- where Republicans hold a slim majority -- passed a competing budget blueprint that does not include Trump's tax cuts, with leaders saying they would vote on those separately later in the year.

Trump, however, has pushed for "one big beautiful bill" to come from the House, as outlined in Tuesday's resolution.

Z.Sanchez--SFF