San Francisco Frontiers - Does Europe hold any cards in Ukraine talks?

The head-spinning push by President Donald Trump threatens to leave both Kyiv and its European backers on the sidelines of existential decisions on their security.

"No peace deal will work without us, because for the implementation of any kind of deal, there is a need for Ukrainians, but also Europeans, to implement it," said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.

So what levers do the Europeans have to try to force their way to the table?

- Troops -

NATO chief Mark Rutte has told Europe that if its wants to be involved it must make itself "relevant" with proposals on how to provide security guarantees for any peace deal.

Key European leaders huddled in Paris on Monday to try to hash out a common plan but they remain split on the possible deployment of peacekeepers to enforce any truce.

Britain and France appear the most forward leaning -- but others including Germany are sceptical of committing before any deal is in sight.

The US -- which has ruled out sending troops itself -- is pressing Europe to do the heavy lifting and Trump said he was "all for" them deploying peacekeepers.

Moscow has insisted it will not accept any troops from NATO countries being stationed in Ukraine as part of a deal.

"Trump seems to be bargaining with Europe and Ukraine big time, and we need to come up with a solid collective position," said Maria Martisiute from the European Policy Centre.

"The European proposal should identify areas which the US must complement and also present them as conditional, for example on security guarantees if there are bilateral European troops, there must also be US troops."

- Sanctions -

After emerging from a first round of talks in Saudi Arabia, US top diplomat Marco Rubio said Tuesday the EU would have to be involved at some stage due to the vast array of sanctions it has imposed on Russia.

The EU has hit Russia's economy with unprecedented sanctions since it invaded in 2022, on Wednesday agreeing a new round of measures to try to keep up the "pressure".

There are over 200 billion euros of Russian central bank assets frozen in the bloc -- some two-thirds of the total held worldwide.

Moscow is expected to push for the lifting of any sanctions and the return of that money as part of any deal on Ukraine.

But the US will need Europe to cooperate.

"The position of the Europeans remains clear, an agreement entirely for the benefit of Russia is unacceptable," said Celia Belin, from the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

"If there is such an agreement, they will not help put it into practice, by for example not lifting sanctions."

One potential obstacle is the stance of Hungary, a friend of Moscow and Trump, as it could block extending the EU sanctions in six months.

- Arms -

The EU and its member states have already sent Ukraine some $52 billion of weaponry since the invasion, matching what the US has given.

Washington now says it wants Europe to provide the "overwhelming share" of future aid to Kyiv as it looks to unwind its backing.

EU officials insist that they will keep backing Kyiv, and Brussels is pressing member states to agree to urgently deliver a new package of key weaponry.

"If Ukraine decides to resist, then we are coming up with new initiatives to do that," Kallas said last week.

But should Kyiv refuse any deal struck by Trump and decide to fight on, there are major questions if Europe alone could keep it going.

"We will have low, low chance to survive without support of the United States," Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

E.Jones--SFF