San Francisco Frontiers - Ecuador president forced into election run-off against leftist rival

Breaking his silence on the result, which came despite pre-election polls giving him a strong lead, 37-year-old Noboa said: "We won the first round over all the parties of Old Ecuador."

With 92 percent of the ballots counted, Noboa, who has been in power since November 2023, had 44.3 percent against 43.8 for Gonzalez, official results showed.

Gonzalez, a 47-year-old lawyer and single mother of two, had on Sunday told elated supporters in Quito that they had achieved a "great victory" by forcing what she called a "statistical tie."

Indigenous leader Leonidas Iza was trailing a distant third, with 5.26 percent.

The election -- a rematch between Noboa and Gonzalez who already duelled for the top job just 15 months ago -- was seen by many as a referendum on Noboa's hardline security response in the face of record rates of murder, kidnapping and extortion and a stalled economy.

In just a few years, cartels vying for control of Pacific ports and lucrative cocaine trading routes to Europe and Asia have transformed Ecuador from one of the safest countries in the world to one of the most dangerous.

Some polls had predicted that Noboa would garner the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a second-round run-off, slated for April.

"This has been a battle of David versus Goliath," Gonzalez, who is bidding to become Ecuador's first elected female president, said in an interview with Teleamazonas channel.

The result "shows that people want change," she added.

- Rights abuses -

During his 15 months in office Noboa has declared a state of emergency in the South American country, deployed the army to the streets and gathered extraordinary executive powers to curb cartel violence.

But human rights groups say the aggressive use of the armed forces has led to abuses, including the murder of four boys whose charred bodies were recently found near an army base.

Both Noboa and Gonzalez were shadowed on the campaign trail by a phalanx of special forces, hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2023 election, when a leading candidate was assassinated.

But Sunday's vote passed off peacefully.

Despite the close result, Noboa's supporters were in jubilant mood late Sunday.

"We came to support the president, we want him to support us and change the country," said 52-year-old secretary Myriam Medrano on the streets of Quito.

Noboa had warned that a Gonzalez win would herald a return to the policies of her mentor, exiled socialist ex-president Rafael Correa, who led the country from 2007 to 2017.

From his exile in Belgium, Correa was bullish about the prospects of victory.

"We are going to PASS Noboa," he said in a social media post.

- 'A bigger challenge' -

Noboa has bet his political fortunes on a slick social media campaign that underscores his youth and vigor, and a hardline approach to tackling crime.

The unrest has scared away tourists and investors alike, hitting an economy that likely entered a recession last year.

Noboa has been forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund to build a $4 billion fiscal war chest.

Gonzalez on Saturday told AFP that the IMF was "welcome" to help, so long as it does not insist on policies that hit working families.

Ecuador is also girding for the return of thousands of migrants who are expected to be deported by US President Donald Trump's administration -- meaning a drop in remittances, which total about $6 billion a year.

Gonzalez told AFP she wanted "appropriate" relations with Trump.

V.Perez--SFF