San Francisco Frontiers - Polls close with Noboa tipped to win violence-hit Ecuador vote

Early exit polls predicted Noboa would get a little over 50 percent of the vote, just enough to avoid a second-round runoff against leftist challenger Luisa Gonzalez, who was on 42 percent.

But it will be some hours before the actual tally is known.

Almost 14 million Ecuadorans voted under tight security, choosing who will lead their violence-wracked Andean nation through its worst crisis in half a century.

The campaigns have been dominated by concerns about the moribund economy and cartel turf wars that have transformed Ecuador from one of the safest countries in the world into one of the most dangerous.

"The country is collapsing. The only thing I ask the new president is that they fix this mess," said 28-year-old businessman Luis Jaime Torres as he prepared to vote in capital city Quito.

Heavily armed soldiers were deployed to polling stations across the country as state emergency services reported "grave warnings" of an unspecified "possible attack against democracy" and election officials.

As voting got underway the only election-related infractions related to about 20 people cited for breaking a strict three-day alcohol ban.

But the dangers are all too real. On the campaign trail the main candidates were shadowed by a phalanx of special forces, hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2023 election, when a leading candidate was assassinated.

- 'A bigger challenge' -

"We're only human, of course, you feel afraid," 47-year-old candidate Gonzalez told AFP from her childhood home on the eve of the vote.

"There are intelligence reports that say there are risks and that they want to take my life, but there is a bigger challenge here. There is a challenge to transform the country," she said.

The former lawmaker will have to dramatically outperform exit polls to beat Noboa -- the son of a banana billionaire who himself ran for president five times without success.

If none of Sunday's candidates garner 50 percent of the vote, or 40 percent while being 10 points ahead of their nearest rival, there will be another poll on April 13.

At 37 years old, Noboa is one of the world's youngest leaders.

He has bet his political fortunes on a slick social media campaign that underscores his youth and vigor and a hardline approach to tackling crime.

On the eve of the vote he posted a video of himself in a crisp white T-shirt and sneakers, strumming an acoustic guitar and crooning along in English -- a striking contrast to his "mano dura," or iron fist, security policies.

- Drugs and violence -

As US drug users have shifted to opioids, Latin American cocaine cartels have turned to supplying fast-growing markets in Europe, Australia and Asia via Ecuador's ports.

That trade has brought record rates of murder, kidnapping and extortion to Ecuador.

Noboa has responded by declaring a state of emergency, deploying the army to the streets and gathering extraordinary executive powers to curb the violence.

He ordered the country's land borders with Colombia and Peru to be closed over the election period, and the military was tasked with distributing ballot papers to 466 polling stations.

Human rights groups believe the aggressive use of the armed forces has led to abuses, including the murder of four boys whose charred bodies were recently found near an army base.

"Ecuador is in a very difficult moment, I think in the worst crisis since we returned to democracy," said Leonardo Laso, a political analyst, referring to a period of deep crisis almost half a century ago.

- 'Dark outlook' -

The unrest has scared away tourists and investors alike, hitting an economy that likely entered a recession last year.

Noboa has been forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund to build a $4 billion fiscal war chest.

Ecuador is also girding for the return of thousands of migrants who are expected to be deported by the administration of US President Donald Trump -- meaning a drop in remittances, which total about $6 billion a year.

"Obviously, there is already unemployment and there will be more unemployment, more problems, more insecurity," said Vinicio Colcha, a 45-year-old merchant.

"It is a dark outlook."

B.Turner--SFF