San Francisco Frontiers - White House says Trump will impose Canada, Mexico, China tariffs at weekend

Trump has reiterated plans for 25 percent tariffs on neighbors Canada and Mexico on Saturday, unless they cracked down on illegal migrants crossing the US border and the flow of deadly fentanyl.

He was also threatening an additional 10 percent duty for Chinese goods on the same day, similarly over the drug.

"The February 1st deadline that President Trump put into place at a statement several weeks ago continues," White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday.

She added that the issue remains the flow of illegal fentanyl.

While Trump has not specified tools he would use, analysts have suggested he could tap emergency economic powers, which allow the president to regulate imports during a national emergency. But this could be hindered by lawsuits.

Fentanyl, many times more powerful than heroin, has been responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths a year.

Beijing has rebuffed claims of its complicity in the deadly trade, while close US ally Canada has countered that below one percent of undocumented migrants and fentanyl entering the United States comes through its northern border.

JPMorgan analysts believe tariffs are "a bargaining chip" to accelerate the renegotiation of the existing trade deal known as USMCA between the United States, Mexico and Canada.

"However, potentially dismantling a decades-long free-trade area could be a significant shock," said a recent JPMorgan note.

One lesson from Trump's first term was that policy changes could be announced or threatened on short notice, it added.

Tariffs are paid by US businesses to the government on purchases from abroad and the economic weight can fall on importers, foreign suppliers or consumers.

- Recession risks -

Assistant professor Wendong Zhang of Cornell University said Canada and Mexico would suffer the most under 25 percent US tariffs and with proportional retaliations.

"Canada and Mexico stand to lose 3.6 percent and two percent of real GDP respectively, while the US would suffer a 0.3 percent real GDP loss," he added.

Oxford Economics analysts warned that blanket tariffs and pushback could tip Canada and Mexico into recessions, adding the United States also risks a shallow downturn.

Mexico's biggest export sectors -- food and beverages, transport equipment and electronics -- account for the bulk of its manufacturing activity, said Joan Domene, chief Latin America economist at Oxford Economics.

Canada exported nearly 80 percent of its goods to the United States in 2023, and accounts for nearly 60 percent of US crude oil imports, noted the Congressional Research Service (CRS).

It is unclear if there could be exceptions, such as on oil imports.

Canadian heavy oil, for example, is refined in the United States and regions dependent on it may lack a ready substitute.

Canadian producers would bear the brunt of tariffs but US refiners would also be hit with higher costs, said Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. This could bring gasoline price increases.

US merchandise imports from both countries largely enter duty free or with very low rates on average, said the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

A tariff hike would shock both industrial buyers and consumers.

Canadian officials said Ottawa would provide pandemic-level financial support to workers and businesses if US tariffs hit, vowing their readiness to respond.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Friday her government was in close contact with Trump's administration.

- 'Grand bargain' -

Trump is also mulling more tariffs on Chinese goods.

Beijing has vowed to defend its "national interests," and a foreign ministry spokeswoman previously warned that "there are no winners in a trade war."

On the election campaign trail, Trump raised the idea of levies of 60 percent or higher on Chinese imports.

Isaac Boltansky of financial services firm BTIG expects "incremental tariff increases" on Chinese goods, with consumer goods likely to face lower hikes.

"Our sense is that Trump will vacillate between carrots and sticks with China, with the ultimate goal being some sort of grand bargain before the end of his term," he said in a recent note.

M.Powell--SFF