San Francisco Frontiers - 'Not interested': Analysts sceptical about US, Russia nuclear talks

Days after returning to the White House for a second term, Trump said he would like to see "denuclearisation" and called for China to join the talks between Russia and the United States, the world's two biggest nuclear powers.

The Kremlin immediately confirmed its interest in launching talks "as soon as possible", saying last week that French and British nuclear weapon stockpiles should also be taken into account.

But China has indicated it is not interested at this stage, while analysts dismissed the US and Russian statements as posturing.

Moscow in particular has no interest in reducing its arsenal of nuclear warheads as its invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its fourth year next month, analysts say, suspecting Putin sees any potential future talks as an attempt to break out of Western isolation and even try to negotiate the fate of Ukraine.

The last remaining strategic arms control agreement between Russia and the United States is set to expire in a year.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an organisation which informs the public about threats to humankind, appears to also be deeply sceptical.

The scientists on Tuesday shifted their "doomsday" clock to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been.

- 'Redistribution of influence' -

"It's hard to imagine China, Russia or the United States undertaking the exacting negotiations required at this point in good faith," said Adam Mount, a nuclear expert at the Federation of American Scientists.

"Donald Trump thinks of himself as a deal maker, but historically hasn't had the patience, proficiency, or credibility," he said, adding that most people in the Trump administration are "arms control skeptics".

Maxim Starchak, a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University in Canada, said Moscow's statements should not be taken at face value.

"Russia is not interested in arms control, it is interested in the redistribution of influence in Europe," Starchak said.

"The so-called arms control negotiations are a way for Moscow to achieve negotiations on broad issues of European security," he added.

"It is important for Putin to show that he is not against negotiations, and in the end declare that the United States has failed them."

Olivier Zajec, director of France's Institute for Strategy and Defence Studies, said he thought it would be in Russia's interest to hold talks on a new agreement.

"Nuclear power is the only thing that gives Russians the ability to talk to the Americans on an equal footing in the world," he said.

If the last arms control agreement between Russia and the United States is not replaced, Moscow and Washington will find themselves without a bilateral nuclear arms control agreement for the first time since 1972, Zajec added.

The last remaining strategic arms control agreement between Russia and the United States -- the New START Treaty -- is set to expire in February 2026.

The treaty restricted the former Cold War rivals to a maximum of 1,550 deployed warheads each.

Moscow said it was suspending its participation in New START in 2023, a year after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, which has raised fears of Russian use of nuclear weapons, though it has kept to the limits set by the agreement.

In 2019, the two powers withdrew from the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty concluded by US president Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which limited the use of medium-range missiles, both conventional and nuclear.

- 'Lack of transparency' -

Washington has embarked on a costly modernisation of its nuclear triad of air, land and sea-based weapons, estimating that China's nuclear stockpile is expected to increase to about 1,500 warheads by 2035.

On Monday, Trump signed an executive order to start planning for an "Iron Dome" air defence system for the United States.

China, which is still a long way from achieving nuclear parity with Russia and the United States, has regularly rejected Washington's invitations to join US-Russian nuclear talks.

On Tuesday, China called on Washington and Moscow to "further reduce" their nuclear arsenals as a precondition for its participation in negotiations.

Zajec said China had no interest in engaging in nuclear arms control talks.

"If it did that, even though its arsenal is quantitatively smaller, it would lose the advantage that a certain lack of transparency over its arsenal gives it," he said.

D.Brown--SFF