San Francisco Frontiers - Silence and suspicion on Belarus's border with Ukraine

Novaya Guta is one of almost a dozen border crossings left deserted since Russia invaded Ukraine via Belarus in February 2022, slashing relations between Minsk and Kyiv.

Up to 17,000 people a day used to pass through this road in southeastern Belarus during the summer, but now only a few soldiers remain, their weapons drawn.

"When a middle brother quarrels with an older brother, we, as younger brothers, will naturally do our best to ensure that there is order in the family," said Anton Bychkovsky, a spokesman for the Belarusian border service, which works closely with the army.

The war between Russia and Ukraine is often cast as a conflict between Slavic "brothers" given the extensive connections between the two countries and their intertwined histories and culture.

All around Bychkovsky, the Novaya Guta border post is deserted.

In the distance, a large blue and yellow sign in the colours of the Ukrainian flag can be seen.

The road leads to Chernigiv, a major city in northern Ukraine, passing through the capital Kyiv before continuing on to the Black Sea, a once popular destination for Belarusian tourists.

What used to be a holiday route now only leads to a war zone.

Despite initial tensions, "the situation is under control", Bychkovsky told a group of journalists, including AFP, invited to the border by the Belarusian army.

"The overall situation appears to be calm," he said of the Ukrainian side.

- 'We sleep well' -

Only around twenty incidents -- Russian and Ukrainian drones flying over Belarussian airspace -- were recorded in 2024, he said.

When asked about the sensitive issue of prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, which often take place on Belarusian soil, Bychkovsky chose his words carefully.

"This road is used," he told reporters, without elaborating.

Behind the scenes, Minsk plays an important role, as does the United Arab Emirates, in mediating between the two camps, one of the few areas where Moscow and Kyiv maintain dialogue.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who won a seventh term in office on Sunday in elections described as farcical and a sham by the opposition, had long cast himself as a bridge between Russia and Ukraine.

In 2014, it hosted talks to end the fighting between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists that resulted in the failed "Minsk agreements".

And at the very start of Russia's 2022 invasion, the first peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv took place in Belarus's Gomel region.

Those negotiations, too, failed, and both sides have held firm in their positions for the last three years.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is calling for Kyiv to surrender and renounce its membership of NATO, while his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky says all Russian troops must leave Ukrainian territory before any talks take place.

In the tiny village of Studyonaya Guta, just seven kilometres (four miles) from the border, Viktor, 59, wondered whether new US President Donald Trump would negotiate a peace settlement.

"I don't know," he smiled, when asked whether a halt to the fighting could be on the horizon.

His friend, Nikolay, believes the war is damaging relations between the two neighbours, both part of the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991.

"Peace of mind and stability: that's the most important thing, we sleep well," the 69-year-old said, recalling that there was "a little bit of tension" at the very start of the conflict.

For spokesman Anton Bychkovsky, it's just a question of patience.

"Тhe Russian people, the Belarusian people, and the Ukrainian people certainly believe that sooner or later, everything will fall into place. Any war ends with negotiations and peace."

G.Collins--SFF