San Francisco Frontiers - Lukashenko set to extend 30-year rule in Belarus

Lukashenko -- a 70-year-old former collective farm boss -- has been in power in Belarus since 1994.

It will be Minsk's first presidential vote since he suppressed mass protests against his rule in 2020 and he has since allowed Moscow to use Belarusians territory to invade Ukraine in 2022.

Belarus's last presidential election in 2020 ended with nationwide protests, with the opposition and the West saying Lukashenko rigged the vote.

The regime responded with a huge crackdown: over 1,000 people are still in prison and tens of thousands fled the country.

All of Lukashenko's political opponents are either in prison -- some held incommunicado -- or in exile.

In a speech to supporters ahead of the vote on Friday, Lukashenko called the 2020 protests "like a vaccine" to prevent them happening again.

"All our opponents and enemies should understand: do not hope, we will never repeat what we had in 2020," he told a stadium in Minsk during a carefully choreographed ceremony.

- Belarusians hope for 'no war' -

Most people in Belarus have only distant memories of life in the landlocked country before Lukashenko, who was 39 when he won the first national election in Belarus since it gained independence from the Soviet Union.

Criticism of the strongman is banned in Belarus. Most people AFP spoke to in Minsk and other towns voiced support for him, but were still fearful of giving their surnames.

The other candidates running against Lukashenko have been picked to give the election an air of democracy and few know who they are.

"I will vote for Lukashenko because things have improved since he became president (in 1994)," said 42-year-old farmer Alexei in the tiny village of Gubichi in south-eastern Belarus.

He earns around 300 euros a month selling milk.

But, like many in Belarus, he is worried about the war in neighbouring Ukraine.

In 2022, Russian troops entered Ukraine from several directions, including from Belarus. The following year, Russia sent tactical nuclear weapons to the country, which borders NATO.

Alexei said he wished "for there not to be a war."

The regime's narrative has been to say that Lukashenko guaranteed peace and order in Belarus, accusing 2020 street protest leaders of sewing chaos.

- 'Farce' -

The UN estimates that some 300,000 Belarusians have left the country since 2020 -- mostly to Poland and Lithuania -- out of a population of nine million.

They will not be able to vote, with Belarus having scrapped voting abroad.

Exiled opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya denounced the vote as a "farce" in an early January interview with AFP.

Her husband Sergei Tikhanovsky has been held incommunicado for almost a year.

She urged dissidents to prepare for an opportunity to change their country but conceded "it was not the moment."

In the run-up to the election, the Lukashenko regime pardoned around 200 political prisoners.

But former prisoners AFP spoke to say those released are under the close watch of security services and are unable to lead a normal life.

Nobel Prize winner Ales Bialiatski is among those in prison in Belarus.

- Reliant on Russia -

While Lukashenko once carefully balanced his relations between the EU and Moscow, since 2020 he has become politically and economically reliant on Russia.

Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, called the election a "sham" in a posting on X Saturday and said "Lukashenko doesn't have any legitimacy".

Known as "Europe's last dictator" -- a nickname he embraces -- Lukashenko's Belarus has retained much of the Soviet Union's traditions and infrastructure.

Unlike in Russia, the KGB has kept its haunting name and Belarus still applies the death penalty.

The country's economy is largely state-planned and Lukashenko scrapped Belarus's white-red-white flag in the 1990s -- which has since become the symbol of the opposition.

Lukashenko prides himself for having kept the country's Soviet-era industries and agriculture enterprises in state hands.

In his speech on Friday, he spoke about the "pyatiletka" (Five Year Plan) -- an economic term used in the Soviet Union.

K.Gray--SFF