San Francisco Frontiers - Trump's climate retreat shines light on other green leaders

China is dominating the clean energy race, Brazil will be steering global climate negotiations, Denmark has approved a world-first tax on livestock emissions and Colombia is saying farewell to fossil fuels.

Some observers see the US retreat as a chance for more ambitious countries to forge new alliances, set the agenda and champion a climate deal endorsed by nearly all nations.

"It's a bigger pact than just the United States," said Frances Colon, a senior fellow from the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based policy institute.

- Emerging players -

One of these emerging leaders is Brazil, which this year is hosting one of the most important UN climate summits since the Paris accord was adopted in 2015.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has positioned himself as a global flag-bearer for the environment, and since taking office deforestation in the Amazon has fallen impressively.

But he also wants to expand Brazil's oil exploration, complicating its image as COP30 host.

Brazil is also chairing BRICS, a bloc of major developing economies, including China and India, seeking to reshape the Western-led global order.

Along with South Africa, which is hosting the G20 this year, Brazil is expected to shape a global reform agenda that demands climate and development goals go hand in glove.

"This could be a year for Global South leadership," said Tim Sahay, co-director of the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December boasted of his country's "leadership" rolling out solar and wind energy.

"India is setting global standards in climate action," he said on X.

- Renewable power -

China is expected to provide stronger political and diplomatic support to the global climate agenda during a second Trump presidency, said Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Its economic contribution to reducing global emissions -- the chief purpose of the Paris Agreement -- is already unrivalled.

China produces more than half the world's electric vehicles, about 70 percent of its wind turbines, and 80 percent of solar panels, helping drastically cut the cost of low-carbon technologies.

As political headwinds frustrate global climate action "China's performance in advancing and deploying green technologies might become the saving grace", Li told AFP.

China already flexes considerable diplomatic muscle in global climate politics, informally leading a developing country bloc in negotiations with richer, more industrialised nations.

At the same time, China is responsible for the overwhelming majority of the growth in planet-warming emissions since the Paris Agreement was inked.

It will soon overtake the European Union as the second-largest historic polluter, behind the United States, and could feel less pressure under Trump to take more ambitious action.

- Old guard -

The EU has a long history of climate leadership and slashed its emissions 7.5 percent between 2022 and 2023 -- streets ahead of any other nation or bloc.

The 27-nation bloc is also the largest contributor of climate finance to poorer countries, outspending all other wealthy nations.

During the last Trump presidency, the EU and China launched a climate dialogue with Canada to ensure unwavering high-level support for the Paris Agreement while the United States was outside the process.

Strong leadership will again be needed to rally momentum during this difficult period ahead, said Alex Scott, a senior associate at Italian climate think tank ECCO.

"The EU and China could collaboratively provide that geopolitical pole," she told AFP.

But the EU is preoccupied with its own domestic problems, including political swings to anti-climate parties, while Beijing is locked in a trade spat with Brussels over its tax on carbon-intensive imports.

- Green agenda -

A slew of other countries, from economic giants to tiny Caribbean islands, are eager to broadcast their climate bona fides.

The UK -- where Energy Secretary Ed Miliband promised in November to "make Britain a climate leader again" -- produced its cleanest electricity on record in 2024.

Denmark has passed a world-first tax on greenhouse gas emissions from its agriculture sector, while Barbados and Kenya are spearheading efforts to boost climate investments in developing countries through global financial reforms.

Colombia has vowed to stop extracting fossil fuels -- its largest export earner -- and signed a global treaty to phase out oil, coal and gas as it shifts to a low-carbon future.

Scott said "countries who've made a bet on investing in the economy of the future with green tech and green jobs will continue to make that bet because it's in their best interests".

J.Scott--SFF