San Francisco Frontiers - Croatia's president faces conservative rival in election run-off

The results came after an exit poll, released immediately after the polling stations closed, showed that Milanovic, backed by the opposition left-wing Social Democrats, had scooped more than 50 percent of the first round vote and would thus avoid the January 12 run-off.

Milanovic won 49.11 percent of the first round vote and Primorac, backed by the ruling conservative HDZ party, took 19.37 percent, according to results released by the state electoral commission from nearly all of the polling stations.

Such a strong lead for Milanovic, whom surveys labelled a favourite ahead of the vote, raises serious concerns for Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic's HDZ.

The election comes as the European Union and NATO member country of 3.8 million people struggles with biting inflation, widespread corruption and a labour shortage.

Among the eight contenders, centre-right MP Marija Selak Raspudic and green-left MP Ivana Kekin followed the two main rivals, the exit poll showed. They each won around nine percent of the vote.

- Balance of power -

Croatia's president commands the country's armed forces and has a say in foreign policy.

But despite limited powers, many believe the office is key for the political balance of power in a country mainly governed by the HDZ since independence in 1991.

"All the eggs should not be in one basket," Nenad Horvat, a salesman in his 40s, told AFP.

He sees Milanovic, a former leftist prime minister, as the "last barrier to all levers of power falling into the hands of HDZ", echoing the view of many that was reflected in Sunday's vote results.

The 58-year-old Milanovic has been one of Croatia's leading and most colourful political figures for nearly two decades.

Sharp and eloquent, he won the presidency for the Social Democrats (SDP) in 2020 with pledges to advocate tolerance and liberalism.

But he used the office to attack political opponents and EU officials, often with offensive and populist rhetoric.

Milanovic, who condemned Russia's aggression against Ukraine, has nonetheless criticised the West's military aid to Kyiv.

That prompted the prime minister to label him a pro-Russian who is "destroying Croatia's credibility in NATO and the EU".

Milanovic countered that he wanted to protect Croatia from being "dragged into war".

"As long as I'm president no Croatian soldier will wage somebody else's wars," he said this month.

Milanovic regularly pans Plenkovic and his HDZ party over systemic corruption, calling the premier a "serious threat to Croatia's democracy".

"I'm a guarantee of the control of the octopus of corruption... headed by Andrej Plenkovic," he said during the campaign.

- President-PM feud -

For many, the election is a continuation of the longstanding feud between two powerful politicians.

"This is still about the conflict between the prime minister and president," political analyst Zarko Puhovski told AFP. "All the rest are just incidental topics."

Primorac, a 59-year-old physician and scientist returning to politics after 15 years, campaigned as a "unifier" promoting family values and patriotism.

"Croatia needs unity, global positioning and a peaceful life," he told reporters after casting his ballot in Zagreb, adding that he would later attend a mass.

Primorac repeatedly accused Milanovic of "disgracing Croatia", a claim that resonated with his supporters.

I.Sanders--SFF