San Francisco Frontiers - Brazil's 2026 elections, without Lula or Bolsonaro?

That scenario -- possible, given Lula's state of health and a ban on Bolsonaro holding public office -- would present a novel situation and open the door to possible successors.

Lula, 79, is currently in hospital, recovering from emergency surgery on Tuesday to relieve pressure from bleeding under his skull related to a bad fall he had in October.

Previously, Lula had treatment in 2011 for throat cancer, and last year a hip replacement operation.

The health woes undermine the robust image that the raspy-voiced leftist icon has long projected, and which galvanized voters to have him as their president between 2003 and 2010, and again since 2023.

In a CNN interview last month Lula declared himself willing to run again if no other viable left-wing candidate emerged.

"I hope it won't be necessary," he said.

An ally, Uruguay's ex-president Jose Mujica, recently told AFP: "Lula's nearly 80 and he has no replacement. That is Brazil's misfortune."

- Bolsonaro's legal woes -

Bolsonaro, 69, faces challenges of a legal nature to try to regain the presidency he lost to Lula in 2022 elections.

The former army captain, who relishes being compared to his hero Donald Trump, has been barred from holding public office, or leaving Brazil, because of what police say was a failed 2022 coup plot against Lula.

Bolsonaro got his ban on public office by making unsubstantiated claims of fraud in Brazil's electronic voting system in that year's election.

Police say he also incited a January 8, 2023 insurrection in which thousands of supporters stormed the presidential palace, the Congress and the Supreme Court, and allege he had a decree written to invoke emergency powers to stay in charge.

Bolsonaro denies the accusations -- which the attorney general is currently weighing to decide if formal charges will be laid -- and has vowed to have the ban set aside so he can run again.

"I am Plan A, Plan B and also Plan C" for 2026, he told a radio program last week.

"Bolsonaro seeks inspiration from Trump... but has before him a long battle in the courts," said Roberto Goulart, an international relations professor at Brasilia University.

Brazil's political and justice system has thrown up surprises before.

Lula himself was barred from running for president in 2018, when he was convicted of corruption, propelling his running mate, former Sao Paulo mayor and current economy minister Fernando Haddad, to the top of the ticket.

Haddad lost to Bolsonaro. And Lula's conviction was later overturned when the judge in charge of the case against him was found to be biased.

- Heirs apparent -

Lula's ministers voice optimism about the state of the president's health, despite his recent emergency.

"President Lula is very well.... He will certainly be our candidate in 2026," Communication Minister Paulo Pimenta told CNN on Thursday.

"The person who won't be able to run in that election is Bolsonaro, who is ineligible and will probably be in prison before the vote happens," Pimenta said.

According to a survey by MDA Pesquisa last month, six out 10 leftwing voters would prefer to see Lula run in 2026.

If that does not happen, analysts and surveys point to Haddad, 61, as his most likely successor.

Lula's last choice to succeed him did not end well.

Back in 2010, he anointed his chief-of-staff Dilma Rousseff as his replacement when he reached his two-term limit, ensuring she became president.

But she ended up being impeached in her second term, and was ousted in 2016 for breaking budget laws.

On the right, while Bolsonaro still garners attention, Brazilian media and analysts have advanced several names that could be considered his heir.

Among them are Sao Paulo state governor Tarcisio de Freitas, 49 -- and Bolsonaro's wife Michelle Bolsonaro, 42.

Freitas has publicly expressed loyalty to Bolsonaro, saying that his "leadership is unquestionable and endures."

I.Wright--SFF