San Francisco Frontiers - S.Korea political upheaval shows global democracy's fragility - and resilience

Yoon's overnight attempt to shut down political activity, censor media and lock out opposition lawmakers stunned South Korea's longtime ally, the United States, which said it had no advance warning and issued a statement of concern.

South Korea's transition to elected rule since a mass uprising in 1987 had been seen as so thorough that the United States increasingly spoke of its ally as a global partner. Meanwhile, Seoul billed itself as a new, ideal hub for international media as China clamped down on Hong Kong.

President Joe Biden had even chosen Yoon as the host in March of his final Summit for Democracy -- a signature initiative of the outgoing US leader, who sought to champion liberal values globally, in an unstated repudiation of Donald Trump, who returns to the White House next month.

But observers, while stunned by Yoon, said there were warning signs.

Danny Russel, a top US diplomat for Asia under former president Barack Obama and who earlier served in South Korea, pointed to the deadlock in parliament where the opposition repeatedly sought impeachments against Yoon's administration.

Yoon's move "was a complete surprise to me (but) yes, there were very obvious structural forces at work," he said.

"There is a radically polarized political scene in Korea. The opposition has been pursuing scorched-earth political obstruction tactics," he said.

But he pointed to the quick, large-scale protests that erupted after Yoon's declaration as a sign of a vibrant civil society ready to defend democracy.

"One certainly would hope that this would serve as a wake-up call to both the ruling conservative party and the progressive opposition that both sides have gone too far and that there needs to be some process of reconciliation, of dealing with legitimate differences and grievances."

- Authoritarian tendencies -

Yoon himself had earlier shown signs of authoritarianism.

In a national address last year, Yoon raged against supposed communists who have "disguised themselves as democracy activists, human rights advocates or progressive activists."

A prosecutor, Yoon narrowly won the 2022 election on a platform of economic reform and advocated close ties with the United States as well as historic rival Japan. But his popularity swiftly slid and the opposition won the National Assembly.

Celeste Arrington, a Korea expert at George Washington University, noted that Yoon had never held elected office before and had become increasingly frustrated.

"This is really an extreme move that may signal, I think, the president's lack of political experience," she said.

She said that martial law showed "some cracks in democracy" but that the quick reversal "gives me hope in the health and strength and vibrancy of democracy in South Korea."

Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, expected Yoon's career to be over after attempting martial law, which constitutionally can only be imposed for wars or other emergencies.

"Yoon's action is a damning reversal to decades of South Korean efforts to put its authoritarian past behind it," he said.

- Democracy stronger? -

The number of democracies worldwide soared starting in the late 1980s as the Soviet Union collapsed and student-led uprisings brought reforms elsewhere.

But globally, democracy has been in retreat for the last 18 straight years, according to the Washington-based group Freedom House, which promotes political liberty.

Democratically elected leaders have taken increasingly authoritarian steps in countries as diverse as India, Turkey and Hungary.

V-Dem, another closely watched democracy index, had most recently ranked South Korea third in Asia after Taiwan and Japan.

In the United States, Trump has rejected long-held norms, refusing to accept he lost to Biden four years ago -- culminating in his supporters violently rampaging through the US Capitol.

Trump's rejection of democracy ultimately worked out for him: campaigning on the rage of 2020, he won last month's election.

But experts said Yoon's power play -- and its reversal -- could in fact show a victory for democratic values.

"Yoon is a deeply unpopular and ineffectual leader, but there was nothing I saw of people being dissatisfied with the way government runs," Alan Yu, a senior vice president at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, said after a recent trip to Seoul.

Darcie Draudt-Vejares of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that with the swift response to Yoon, "this crisis may ultimately strengthen Korean democracy by reaffirming civilian control and demonstrating institutional resilience."

A.Clark--SFF