San Francisco Frontiers - Nigerian state visit signals shift in France's Africa strategy

Military coups and changing attitudes have lessened France's influence on the African continent, where several nations have turned their backs on their former colonial ruler and grown increasingly frosty towards the European Union.

That makes Tinubu's visit a positive sign for French President Emmanuel Macron, who has sought a "renewal" between Paris and the African continent since his 2017 election.

The trip is "an opportunity to deepen the already dynamic relationship between France and Nigeria", Macron's office said ahead of Tinubu's visit, the first by a Nigerian head of state since 2000.

The west African country is the continent's leading oil producer and has a robust film industry but challenges posed by insecurity and corruption have left 129 million Nigerians -- more than half the country's population -- living below the poverty line.

For Nigeria, the visit represents an opportunity to tap economic investment with Tinubu and Macron set to meet at the "Franco-Nigerian Business Council", a forum designed "to develop new partnerships between the economic players in both countries".

"We have an open-door policy, and we want your investors to take advantage of it," the Nigerian president told France's ambassador in early November, calling Macron his "good friend".

– 'Colonial past'-

Paris's pivot towards English-speaking Africa signals Macron's desire to reverse the country's declining influence on the continent, with visits to Nigeria in 2018, Ethiopia in 2019 and South Africa in 2021.

"This is not a new trend ... but the crises in the Sahel have accelerated this dynamic," said Togolese economist Kako Nubukpo.

France suffered a blow when Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso -– all under military rule following a string of coups since 2020 –- joined together in September 2023 under the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), severing ties with former colonial ruler France and pivoting towards Russia.

The West African countries are all battling jihadist violence that erupted in northern Mali in 2012 and spread to Niger and Burkina Faso in 2015.

Now, "France's leading trading partners in Africa are not French-speaking", Nubukpo said.

Nigeria was France's number one trading partner in Africa in 2023, followed by South Africa, according to French customs authority.

France still holds significant sway despite competition from China, India, and Turkey, said Alain Antil, a researcher in sub-Saharan Africa at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

This is especially true in English-speaking countries where France "is not held back by its colonial past", he told AFP.

And with urbanisation and an emerging middle class, countries throughout Africa are seeking to take advantage of French investment to boost economic growth.

"Between 2020 and 2050, there will be between 600 and 700 million more urban dwellers in Africa," said Antil, adding, "it's transforming African societies and cities" which need to be built and equipped to manage the change.

-'Partnership of equals'-

As Africa's most populous country, Nigeria represents a promising market despite the challenges posed by insecurity and corruption.

Since 2009, northern Nigeria has been plagued by various jihadist groups, including Boko Haram and a rival faction, the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP), as well as armed criminal groups.

Tinubu, elected head of Africa's largest economy in 2023, is also the current chairman of the West African economic bloc ECOWAS.

And the Franco-Nigerian Business Council, launched during Macron's 2018 presidential visit to Nigeria, is playing a leading role in encouraging investment and economic cooperation between the two countries.

The French president will receive its members, including billionaire Aliko Dangote, during the official state visit with "big contracts" on the line, according to a diplomatic source who asked not to be named.

This state visit with Tinubu "epitomises" France's strategy in anglophone Africa, they said, adding Nigeria "wants a partnership of equals, not a lecture", especially on human rights.

Next, Paris hopes to court east Africa at the 2026 Africa-France Summit, where France sees opportunities in countries like Kenya and Zambia.

F.Edwards--SFF