San Francisco Frontiers - Anti-Brussels firebrand Orban to host European leaders in Hungary

The nationalist leader -- a big fan of Donald Trump -- has faced backlash for his country's norm-defying EU presidency, which saw him jetting to Moscow right after taking over the six-month stint in July. Orban's frequent attacks on Brussels and fellow leaders have also left him isolated.

Hungary will host the European Political Community (EPC) summit on Thursday, followed by an informal EU leaders' meeting on Friday.

The European gatherings will take place in Budapest's Puskas arena -- a football stadium named after legendary Hungarian-Spanish player Ferenc Puskas -- reflecting Orban's avid passion for the sport.

But the US presidential election is likely to overshadow the official agenda.

With Trump leading the Democratic vice-president Kamala Harris as counting continued early Wednesday, his victory would give Orban a "clear advantage" at the upcoming meetings, Lukas Macek, an analyst from the Jacques Delors Institute told AFP.

But in case Harris wins, "Orban will have to manage the situation after having bet so much on Trump, which risks weakening him, even domestically," the expert added.

- 'Make Europe Great Again' -

Orban -- the only EU leader to maintain close ties with the Kremlin after Russia's invasion of Ukraine -- is banking on his "dear friend" Trump to emerge victorious.

Hungary has vowed to use its presidency to push for its "vision of Europe" under the motto "Make Europe Great Again", an echo of the rallying cry of the former US president.

Orban -- who opposes military aid to Kyiv -- predicts Trump's return to power will bring peace to Ukraine, hoping it will force the EU to re-examine its stance on the war.

"If the Americans are switching to peace, then we must also adapt," he told state radio over the weekend.

There is speculation that Orban will try to organise a video call with Trump once results come in, but diplomats are sceptical.

"Orban is known for pulling off things like this, but it's still difficult to arrange at a summit. He might call Trump bilaterally if the initial election results are showing his victory," an EU diplomat told AFP.

But another diplomat stressed that Hungary "usually sticks to the programme and the agenda" when chairing meetings.

- 'False good idea' -

Orban infuriated fellow leaders in July by conducting breakaway diplomacy with Moscow to explore a path to ending the war in Ukraine.

He stoked anger again last month by travelling to Tbilisi to show support for Georgia's ruling party after a disputed parliamentary election.

While international observers, the EU and the United States criticised electoral irregularities and demanded a full investigation, Orban declared the vote was "free and democratic".

Meanwhile, he has publicly accused Brussels of wanting to impose a "puppet government" in Hungary.

Despite the brewing tensions, the summits in Budapest are unlikely to be affected by an unofficial boycott of Hungary's presidency, which has seen multiple ministers and high-level officials skipping informal meetings.

Last week, European Council president Charles Michel cautioned against boycotting the meetings, calling the notion a "false good idea".

But according to analyst Macek "patience is wearing thin" with Hungary's premier and "at some point, the EU may have to step up pressure".

He anticipates a "cold atmosphere" at the Budapest summits "but at the same time, as always in these circumstances, appearances will be kept to a minimum."

"Many participants will find ways to make Orban understand their disagreements."

X.White--SFF