San Francisco Frontiers - Moldova in tense vote for EU future

The vote in the country bordering war-torn Ukraine comes two weeks after a razor-thin "yes" in a referendum on joining the European Union.

Pro-EU incumbent Maia Sandu scored 42.5 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential vote. Alexandr Stoianoglo, supported by the pro-Russian Socialists and who was fired as prosecutor general by Sandu last year, got 26 percent.

But Stoianoglo has since gained the support of other defeated candidates and analysts are predicting a close battle, similar to Georgia's vote last weekend when the ruling party narrowly won a contested parliamentary election.

In both ex-Soviet republics Russia has been accused of seeking to sway voters. In each case it has rejected the claims.

- 'Honest votes' -

Sandu, a 52-year-old fervent pro-Western former World Bank economist, blamed "foreign interference" for the narrow EU vote when 50.35 percent backed membership. Police said they uncovered a Russian vote-buying scheme that could have affected up to a quarter of the ballots.

For the presidential second round, polling stations open at 7:00 am (0500 GMT) and close at 9.00 pm, with the first partial results expected an hour later.

Ahead of the vote, Sandu's camp has intensified campaigning on social media and in door-to-door visits in villages to try to counter any vote buying.

"Let's remain mobilised so that the honest votes determine the outcome of these elections and not the bought ones," Sandu said in a video message on Friday.

In messages sent to mobiles and even broadcast on supermarket loudspeakers, police are telling people offered money for their votes to refuse.

Police have reported a "massive phenomenon" of people receiving calls, emails, even death threats, to influence ballots. Prime Minister Dorin Recean has called it an "extreme attack... to create panic and fear so that people will be afraid to go out and vote".

Sandu applied for Moldova, which has a population of 2.6 million, to join the EU after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Accession negotiations formally opened in June.

While Stoianoglo, 57, says he also favours joining the EU, he boycotted the referendum, describing it as a "parody", and promised voters a "balanced foreign policy", which would repair links to Moscow cut by Sandu.

His ambiguous EU stance could see Moldova formally maintaining its EU ambitions, but taking decisions to thwart it if he wins, analysts say.

"I will truly be a president of all and will never divide people and society," Stoianoglo -- who usually gives scripted speeches that mix Russian with Romanian, the official language -- declared on Friday.

- Deeply polarised -

Moldova is already deeply polarised. A large diaspora and the capital mostly favours joining the EU, while rural areas and the pro-Russian separatist regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia are against.

"We trust Maia Sandu to take us down the right path... (but) here there is still a Soviet flavour. And this Soviet flavour runs deep to the bone," a 56-year-old pensioner who only gave her name as Acsenia told AFP.

Others, like Zinovia Zaharovna, 75, say they reject joining the EU, wanting Moldova "to be an independent country".

"Many people fear war and see a candidate who would have a good relationship with Moscow as a guarantee that we will not be attacked as well," Andrei Curararu, an expert at the Chisinau-based WatchDog think tank, told AFP.

The vote is being closely watched internationally for signs of Russian interference.

For Curararu, "the pressure is unprecedented" with more than $100 million estimated to have been spent on "destabilisation activities".

"Moldova is paying a high cost" for aiming to move away from Russia, he said.

O.Anderson--SFF