San Francisco Frontiers - As US election rhetoric heats up, illegal border crossings fall

The change reflects not only the success of US deterrence, but also heated rhetoric ahead of next week's closely fought US presidential election in which immigration is a hugely divisive issue.

Fearing harsher punishments for illegal entry and the ever-present risk of dying in the hands of human smugglers, many migrants have instead chosen to wait for an appointment to seek asylum before arriving at the US-Mexico border.

The number of US border patrol encounters with migrants crossing over from Mexico illegally fell to around 54,000 in September, from a peak of nearly 250,000 in December, according to the US government.

US President Joe Biden issued an order in June to shut the border to asylum seekers after certain daily limits.

Jorluis Ocando was one of those who initially planned to sneak across after making the dangerous journey from Venezuela.

"But when I arrived everything was complicated," said the 28-year-old, one of the almost eight million Venezuelans who have left their crisis-hit country.

"It's better to enter legally," he said after reaching El Paso, Texas, just across the border from Mexico's Ciudad Juarez.

- 'I've made it' -

Ocando obtained an appointment to request asylum using a cellphone application called CBP One, becoming one of around 1,500 migrants who are attended to daily by US authorities at eight border points with Mexico.

But "there's a lot of talk on social media that if a new government comes in, it's going to get rid of CBP One," he said.

Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump has threatened the largest mass deportation of undocumented migrants in US history if he defeats his Democratic rival Kamala Harris next Tuesday.

Ocando counts himself lucky that having survived various threats along the way, he managed to enter the United States at an official border crossing just days before the election.

"I've made it, thank God," he said.

Some other migrants said the fear of dying trying to cross the border spurred them to seek an appointment through the app.

"We prefer not to risk entering illegally, especially for the sake of our children's lives," said Denia Ramirez, a 37-year-old Honduran who instead walked across a border bridge with her sister and six children.

Months ago, a steady flow of undocumented migrants crossed the Rio Grande river from Ciudad Juarez each day.

Today, they are a less common sight.

Among those who manage to get an appointment through CBP One, "I've only seen two people who were turned away," a Mexican border guard said.

- 'Hardening stance' -

Trump, who in 2016 promised to build a wall along the US-Mexico border, has accused immigrants of "poisoning the blood of our country."

Harris for her part has pledged a tough stance and warned of "consequences" for people who enter the country illegally.

"Harris is continuing Biden's hardening stance, including the controversial move to bar those who cross the border illegally from applying for asylum," according to Christopher Sabatini, an expert at the Chatham House think tank in London.

The drop in migrant arrivals is a relief for authorities in Ciudad Juarez who had been struggling to deal with overcrowded shelters in the city, which was struck by tragedy last year.

A fire at an immigration detention center killed 40 people, mostly Central Americans and Venezuelans.

Today, shelters are around 40 percent full, according to Enrique Valenzuela, a migration coordinator in Chihuahua state, where Ciudad Juarez is located.

- 'Most won't win' -

It is a similar situation across the border in El Paso.

The Casa del Sagrado Corazon shelter closed on October 7 because it only had a handful of guests, said priest Rafael Garcia.

He worries what the future holds, even for migrants who are allowed into the country through official entry points.

"It's an appointment with an immigration judge to present a case. Most of them won't win," Garcia said.

Ruben Garcia, who runs Annunciation House, a volunteer organization in El Paso that has been hosting migrants for five decades, is concerned that even if Harris wins, not enough asylum seekers will be allowed into the country.

"Ten thousand appointments a day would be needed so that migrants and their families don't have to cross the desert," he said.

Ocando waited four months for his appointment, but he said it was worth it, even though his asylum hearing is still months away.

"It was something I can't even explain. It was something emotional and beyond words," he said.

W.Carter--SFF