San Francisco Frontiers - Brussels hopes to advance Ukraine, Moldova entry talks in 2025

In an annual update on the EU enlargement process, the commission also reaffirmed that Georgia's path to joining remained "de facto" halted without a change of course from its ruling party -- accused of steering Tbilisi back into Russia's orbit.

Ex-Soviet Ukraine and Moldova opened European Union accession negotiations in June, setting them on a long -- and yet uncertain -- path towards membership that Russia has tried to block.

The commission said the task of screening how far laws in both Ukraine and Moldova comply with EU standards -- and how much work lies ahead -- was "progressing smoothly".

Once complete, actual negotiations can begin on 35 subjects, from taxation to environmental policy -- grouped under what are known in enlargement jargon as "clusters".

For both Ukraine and Moldova, the commission said it was "looking forward to the opening of negotiations on clusters... as soon as possible in 2025" -- subject to a green light from the EU's 27 member states.

For Ukraine, the opening of talks in June marked the beginning of a protracted process that will likely take many years -- and may never lead to membership.

So far, Ukraine has won plaudits for kickstarting a raft of reforms on curbing graft and political interference, even as it battles the Russian invasion.

"Ukrainians are fighting two battles at the same time," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told a news conference. "One in the battlefield, a real war, and another striving to push the reforms needed to become member of the European Union."

"We will support Ukraine on both fronts," he said.

Moldova only narrowly voted in favour of joining the bloc in a referendum this month marked by allegations of interference by Moscow -- casting a shadow over the country's EU aspirations.

But enlargement commissioner Oliver Varhelyi told the press conference "it is very clear that Moldova has come a long way" -- citing in particular the recovery from oligarchs of tens of millions in "stolen" funds.

Kyiv and Chisinau lodged their respective EU bids in the aftermath of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has reinvigorated a push to take on new members.

- No 'business as usual' with Russia -

EU also granted candidate status to ex-Soviet Georgia last December -- but negotiations were frozen after it passed a controversial "foreign influence law" targeting civil society, which critics said mirrored Russian legislation.

"Should there be a political will from Georgia's leadership, we are offering a clear path for re-engagement on the way to the European Union -- the repeal of the law on foreign influence," Borrell said.

But the commission's enlargement report also warned: "Unless Georgia reverts the current course of action which jeopardises its EU path... the commission will not be in a position to consider recommending opening negotiations with Georgia."

Borrell said the invasion of Ukraine had made "clear that Russia is posing an existential threat to Europe now more than ever, and that European Union membership becomes a strategic choice."

"You simply cannot maintain ties with Russia or to try to do business as usual and expect that your country will be part of the European Union," said Borrell. "It's one thing or the other."

Brussels earlier this year approved accession negotiations with Bosnia and has talks ongoing with Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia.

Borrell took a swipe at Serbia, which maintains friendly ties with Moscow and has refused to sanction it for the invasion of Ukraine.

"Serbia, sooner or later, will have to align the foreign policy with European Union foreign policy. Otherwise, membership will be jeopardised," he warned.

Turkey officially remains a candidate, having launched membership talks in 2005, but the process has gone nowhere since a crackdown on opposition groups following a failed coup in 2016.

K.Gray--SFF