San Francisco Frontiers - Centre-left opposition leads in Lithuania election

The Social Democratic Party came first with 50 seats in the 141-seat parliament and is now hoping to build a coalition.

Social Democrat leader Vilija Blinkeviciute expressed gratitude as the results were announced.

"The results of the elections showed that the people of Lithuania... want change, they need a completely different government," she said.

Any power shift is expected to leave intact the NATO and EU member's strong support for Ukraine amid security concerns about neighbouring Russia.

Lithuania, home to 2.8 million people, fears it could be targeted if Moscow succeeds in Ukraine.

According to the Germany-based Kiel Institute, Lithuania ranks among the top three countries globally in terms of aid for Ukraine in relation to the size of its economy, at 1.64 percent.

Lithuania is also among the top NATO spenders, allocating 3.2 percent of its GDP to defence this year, well above the NATO target of two percent.

- 'Not tragic' -

The Social Democratic Party, which last led the government from 2012 to 2016, eyes a three-party coalition with the Democratic Union "In the Name of Lithuania" and the Lithuanian Popular Peasants' Union.

If they succeed, Blinkeviciute is expected to leave her role as a European Parliament member to lead the government.

Social Democrat voter Tomas Valiunas, 18, told AFP that Blinkeviciute as prime minister "won't be ideal, but also not tragic".

"I would like to see better infrastructure and a reduction in social inequality, which is among the highest in Europe," the student said.

Pensioner Valerija Zaltauskiene, another Social Democrat voter, hoped for faster pension increases.

"I get a 300 euro pension in Lithuania. How can I survive on that kind of money?" she told AFP.

The Social Democrats have pledged to raise pensions, make taxation more progressive, tax luxury goods and spend more on social services.

- Coalition challenges -

The ruling conservative party finished a distant second with 27 seats, the results showed.

But the Social Democrats may struggle to form a government, as analysts warn that their goal of building a three-party coalition may prove difficult.

"It is very probable that no one will really win this election," political analyst Rima Urbonaite told AFP.

The election has been marked by controversy surrounding a new populist party, Nemunas Dawn, led by former long-time lawmaker Remigijus Zemaitaitis.

The party is set to win 19 seats, according to the preliminary results.

While the Social Democrats have ruled out Nemunas Dawn as a coalition partner, analysts suggest it may be difficult to form a stable government without them.

"The arrival of Nemunas Dawn would solve the shortage of votes, but the party is now so controversial and toxic that it seems the Social Democrats are going to do everything to keep them out of the coalition," Urbonaite said.

Last year, Zemaitaitis gave up his seat in parliament after facing criticism over alleged anti-Semitic comments.

He is currently on trial for incitement to hatred, although he denies the charges, claiming he only criticised the Israeli government's policies in Gaza.

R.Baker--SFF