San Francisco Frontiers - Japan ruling coalition projected to miss majority in election

Ishiba, 67, called Sunday's election only days after taking office on October 1, aiming to bolster his position and that of his scandal-hit Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan almost constantly for seven decades.

But national broadcaster NHK and other media outlets predicted in the hours after polls closed that the LDP -- in the party's worst result since 2009 -- together with its long-term junior coalition party Komeito had fallen short of the 233 seats needed for a majority in Japan's lower house.

Voters in the world's fourth-largest economy have been rankled by rising prices and the fallout from a party slush fund scandal that helped sink previous premier Fumio Kishida.

"We are receiving severe judgement," Ishiba told NHK earlier Sunday while it still remained unclear whether the coalition would secure enough seats.

Voters "expressed their strong desire for the LDP to do some reflection and become a party that will act in line with the people's will," he said.

Footage from the LDP headquarters showed gloomy faces as the projections based on exit polls said Ishiba's justice and agriculture ministers were likely to lose their seats.

Ishiba, a self-confessed security policy geek who likes making model planes, had said his target in the election was for the coalition to win a majority.

Missing this goal would seriously undermine his position in the LDP and mean finding other coalition partners or leading a minority government.

"If we are unable to obtain a majority as a result of severe public judgement, we will ask as many people as possible to cooperate with us," the LDP's election chief Shinjiro Koizumi told reporters.

- Worst in 15 years -

In Japan's last general election in 2021, the LDP won a majority in its own right, with 259 seats in parliament's powerful lower house. Komeito had 32.

On Sunday, national broadcaster NHK projected that the LDP would win between 153 and 219 seats -- short of the 233 needed for a single-party majority in the 465-seat parliament.

If confirmed by official results, the LDP losing its majority would be the worst result since it lost power 15 years ago before being brought back in a 2012 landslide by late former premier Shinzo Abe.

Opinion polls before the election had suggested that in many districts, LDP candidates were neck-and-neck with those from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the second-biggest in parliament, led by popular former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda.

Projections on Sunday suggested that the CDP had made considerable gains, with NHK indicating it could win between 128 and 191 seats -- up from 96.

Noda, 67, said on Sunday night he would hold "sincere talks with various parties".

"Our basic philosophy is that the LDP-Komeito administration cannot continue," Noda told Fuji-TV.

Ishiba has pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the "quiet emergency" of Japan's falling population through family-friendly measures such as flexible working hours.

But he has rowed back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames. He also named only two women as ministers in his cabinet.

He has backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of NATO to counter China, although he has cautioned it would "not happen overnight".

Noda's stance "is sort of similar to the LDP's. He is basically a conservative," Masato Kamikubo, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan University, told AFP before the election.

"The CDP or Noda can be an alternative to the LDP. Many voters think so."

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Q.Nelson--SFF