San Francisco Frontiers - Centre-left tipped to take power as Lithuanians vote

The Social Democratic Party won the most seats in the first round of voting two weeks ago, and were readying to take power in a shift that is expected to leave intact the NATO and EU member's strong support for Ukraine.

The party already secured 20 seats in the 141-seat parliament, and another 35 of its candidates have advanced to the runoffs in the single-member constituencies.

The Baltic state, home to 2.8 million people, has been warily observing Russia, fearing it could be targeted if Moscow succeeds in Ukraine.

All major parties running in the elections are agreed on maintaining NATO and EU member's strong support for Ukraine, and on either sustaining or increasing defence spending.

"The disputes in this election are concentrated on domestic policy issues, but on foreign policy we see virtually no difference" between parties, political analyst Rima Urbonaite told AFP.

According to the Germany-based Kiel Institute, Lithuania ranks among the top three countries globally in terms of aid for Ukraine in relation to the size of its economy, at 1.64 percent.

On national defence, Lithuania is also among the top NATO spenders, allocating 3.2 percent of its GDP to defence this year, well above the NATO target of two percent.

- 'Not tragic' -

The Social Democratic Party, which last led the government from 2012 to 2016, eyes a three-party coalition with the Democratic Union "In the Name of Lithuania" and the Lithuanian Popular Peasants' Union.

Together, they hope to secure 80 seats, and Social Democrat leader Vilija Blinkeviciute is expected to leave her role as a European Parliament member to lead the new government.

Social Democrat voter and student Tomas Valiunas, 18, told AFP that Blinkeviciute as prime minister "won't be ideal, but also not tragic".

"I would like to see better infrastructure and a reduction in social inequality, which is among the highest in Europe," Valiunas said.

Pensioner Valerija Zaltauskiene, another Social Democrat voter, hoped for faster pension increases under the new government.

"I get a 300 euro pension in Lithuania. How can I survive on that kind of money?" she told AFP.

The Social Democrats have pledged to raise pensions as well as to make taxation more progressive, tax luxury goods and spend more on social services.

"Voters attribute the inflation spike and other crises to the conservative government, and expect the Social Democrats to provide solutions that will improve their financial situation," Urbonaite said.

Asked about a possible centre-left coalition taking power, President Gitanas Nauseda said as he cast his vote that he hoped that it "will be effective, that it will not disintegrate, that it will not diverge on fundamental, strategic issues in the life of Lithuania".

- Coalition challenges -

The ruling conservative party is expected to finish a close second to the Social Democrats but faces limited prospects of forming a majority.

But the Social Democrats may also struggle to form a government, as analysts warn that their goal of building a three-party coalition may prove difficult.

"It is very probable that no one will really win this election," Urbonaite said.

Preliminary results are expected later on Sunday.

The election has been marked by controversy surrounding a new populist party, Nemunas Dawn, led by former long-time lawmaker Remigijus Zemaitaitis.

In the first round, the party finished third with 15 seats.

While the Social Democrats have ruled out Nemunas Dawn as a coalition partner, analysts suggest it may be difficult to form a stable government without them.

"The arrival of Nemunas Dawn would solve the shortage of votes, but the party is now so controversial and toxic that it seems the Social Democrats are going to do everything to keep them out of the coalition," said Urbonaite, the analyst.

Last year, Zemaitaitis gave up his seat in parliament after facing criticism over alleged anti-Semitic comments.

He is currently on trial for incitement to hatred, although he denies the charges, claiming he only criticised the Israeli government's policies in Gaza.

W.Thompson--SFF