San Francisco Frontiers - Opposition, ruling party both shown ahead in Georgia elections

Four pro-Western opposition groups which have agreed to form a coalition received 51.9 percent of the vote, according to an exit poll commissioned by a pro-opposition TV station from US pollster Edison Research.

But an exit poll published by a pro-government TV station said the ruling Georgian Dream party had won 56.1 percent of the vote.

Preliminary results were expected late Saturday. But the rival claims came after an election that pro-opposition President Salome Zurabishvili said was marked by violence at some polling stations and allegations of ballot stuffing and voter intimidation.

According to the Edison Research poll, the ruling Georgian Dream party, accused by critics of stifling democracy and turning the Caucasus country increasingly towards Moscow, is predicted to win 40.9 percent of the vote.

Zurabishvili hailed a victory for "European Georgia".

But the exit poll by the pro-government TV station said the ruling Georgian Dream party was ahead of the opposition on 35.2 percent of the vote.

Hungary's nationalist Prime Minister Victor Orban congratulated Georgian Dream, saying it had won an "overwhelming victory".

Brussels has warned that the election will determine Georgia's chances of joining the European Union, while the Kremlin has condemned "Western interference" in the election campaign.

"Of course, I have voted for Europe. Because I want to live in Europe, not in Russia. So, I voted for change," said Alexandre Guldani, an 18-year-old student casting his ballot in Tbilisi.

Analyst Gela Vasadze at Georgia's Strategic Analysis Centre warned ahead of the vote that "if the ruling party attempts to stay in power regardless of the election outcome, then there is the risk of post-electoral turmoil."

Zurabishvili said there had been "deeply troubling incidents of violence" at some polling stations and allegations of ballot stuffing and voter intimidation.

A video circulated on social media showing a fistfight between dozens of unidentified men outside a polling station in suburban Tbilisi.

Another showed scuffles outside a campaign office of the United National Movement (UNM), Georgia's main opposition force, founded in 2001 by jailed ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili.

The opposition also shared videos of an alleged ballot stuffing incident in the southeastern village of Sadakhlo.

- Anti-Western rhetoric -

Georgian Dream, run by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, said during the campaign it wanted a supermajority to pass a constitutional ban on all major opposition parties.

After the publication of the exit poll showing a win for the government, Ivanishvili hailed the party's "success in such a difficult situation".

"I assure you, our country will achieve great success in the next four years. We will do a lot," he said.

In power since 2012, the party initially pursued a liberal pro-Western policy agenda. But it has reversed course over the last two years.

Its campaign centred on a conspiracy theory about a "global war party" that controls Western institutions and is seeking to drag Georgia into the Russia-Ukraine war.

In a country scarred by Russia's 2008 invasion, the party has offered voters bogeyman stories about an imminent threat of war, which only Georgian Dream could prevent.

In a recent TV interview, Ivanishvili painted a grotesque image of the West where "orgies are taking place right in the streets".

Georgian Dream's adoption of a controversial "foreign influence" law early this year targeting civil society sparked weeks of mass street protests and was criticised as a Kremlin-style measure to silence dissent.

The move prompted Brussels to freeze Georgia's EU accession process, while Washington imposed sanctions on dozens of Georgian officials.

The ruling party has also mounted a campaign against sexual minorities. It has adopted measures that ban LGBTQ "propaganda", nullify same-sex marriages conducted abroad, and outlaw gender reassignment.

The opposition coalition has signed up to a pro-European policy platform outlining far-reaching electoral, judicial and law enforcement reforms.

They have agreed to form an interim multi-party government to push through the reforms -- if they command enough seats in parliament -- before calling fresh elections.

N.Wilson--SFF