San Francisco Frontiers - Opposition tipped to win narrow majority in Georgia election: exit poll

Four pro-Western opposition groups which have agreed to form a coalition received 51.9 percent of the vote, according to an exit poll commissioned by a pro-opposition TV station from US pollster Edison Research.

The ruling Georgian Dream party, accused by critics of stifling democracy and drifting increasingly towards Moscow, is predicted to win 40.9 percent of the vote, according to the survey published after polls closed.

The voting was marred by what pro-opposition President Salome Zurabishvili called "deeply troubling incidents of violence" at some polling stations and allegations of ballot stuffing and voter intimidation.

Brussels has warned that the election will determine European Union-candidate's chances of joining the bloc, while the Kremlin has condemned "Western interference" in the election campaign.

"Of course, I have voted for Europe. Because I want to live in Europe, not in Russia. So, I voted for change," said Alexandre Guldani, an 18-year-old student casting his ballot in Tbilisi.

Analyst Gela Vasadze at Georgia's Strategic Analysis Centre warned ahead of the vote that "if the ruling party attempts to stay in power regardless of the election outcome, then there is the risk of post-electoral turmoil."

There were various reports of incidents.

A video was circulated on social media showing a fistfight between dozens of unidentified men outside a polling station in suburban Tbilisi.

Another showed scuffles outside a campaign office of the United National Movement (UNM), Georgia's main opposition force, founded in 2001 by now jailed ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili.

The opposition also shared videos of an alleged ballot stuffing incident in the south-eastern village of Sadakhlo.

Georgian Dream said before the vote it was confident it could win a commanding majority of the 150-seat parliament, calling for a "maximum mobilisation" of its supporters.

- Anti-Western rhetoric -

Georgian Dream, run by influential billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, said during the campaign it wanted to win a supermajority to pass a constitutional ban on all major opposition parties.

In power since 2012, the party initially pursued a liberal pro-Western policy agenda. But over the last two years the party has reversed course.

Its campaign has centred on a conspiracy theory about a "global war party" that controls Western institutions and is seeking to drag Georgia into the Russia-Ukraine war.

In a country still scarred by Russia's 2008 invasion, the party has offered voters bogeyman stories about an imminent threat of war, which only Georgian Dream could prevent.

In a recent TV interview, Ivanishvili painted a grotesque image of the West where "orgies are taking place right in the streets".

Georgian Dream's adoption of a controversial "foreign influence" law this spring targeting civil society sparked weeks of mass street protests and was criticised as a Kremlin-style measure to silence dissent.

The move prompted Brussels to freeze Georgia's EU accession process, while Washington imposed sanctions on dozens of Georgian officials.

The ruling party has also mounted a campaign against sexual minorities, following the recent adoption of measures that ban LGBTQ "propaganda", nullify same-sex marriages conducted abroad, and outlaw gender reassignment.

The potential coalition grouping has signed up to a pro-European policy platform outlining far-reaching electoral, judicial and law enforcement reforms.

They have agreed to form an interim multi-party government to push through the reforms -- if they command enough seats in parliament -- before calling fresh elections.

F.Edwards--SFF