San Francisco Frontiers - SE Asian summit urges end to Myanmar violence but struggles for solutions

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has tried to no avail to find a negotiated solution to the Myanmar crisis, which has killed thousands of people and forced millions to flee their homes since the military seized power in February 2021.

The crisis dominated the first day of the ASEAN summit in Vientiane, where the disputed South China Sea will also be high on the agenda.

ASEAN leaders held their first face-to-face talks with a senior Myanmar junta representative in more than three years on the first day.

The junta has suffered serious battlefield defeats over the past year during a renewed offensive by ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy "People's Defence Forces" that rose up to oppose its coup.

ASEAN leaders condemned attacks on civilians and "urged all parties involved to take concrete action to immediately halt indiscriminate violence", according to a draft summit chairman's statement seen by AFP.

The junta agreed to a "five point consensus" plan with ASEAN to restore peace weeks after it ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's government, but instead pushed ahead with a bloody crackdown on opposition to its rule.

After condemning Myanmar for ignoring the five-point plan at summits in 2022 and 2023, the leaders insisted again on Wednesday it was still their "main reference" to deal with the crisis, the chairman's draft statement said.

How to enforce it remains unclear.

"We are trying to find ways to move forward, because we have to admit that although the five points have been there... we have not been very successful in actually changing the situation," Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos told reporters.

"We are trying to formulate new strategies," he said, adding that those new strategies had not yet been decided.

Thai foreign ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura confirmed there was no discussion at the summit on how to implement the peace plan.

Myanmar sent a senior foreign ministry official to the meeting after three years of shunning summits because the bloc barred junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in the wake of the coup.

- Bloc's clout in doubt -

ASEAN's failure to make any tangible progress in resolving a civil war inside one of its own members has fuelled longstanding questions about its effectiveness.

"The longer the Myanmar crisis remains unresolved, the greater the risk of ASEAN outliving its usefulness in resolving conflicts within the Southeast Asian region," Mustafa Izzuddin, international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, told AFP.

With formal diplomacy making no progress, Thailand will host informal talks on the crisis in December involving ASEAN members and possibly neighbouring countries such as China and India.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will join the leaders in Vientiane for talks on Friday, when he is expected to press for the junta to take steps such as reducing violence, releasing political prisoners and engaging with the opposition.

Daniel Kritenbrink, the top US diplomat for East Asia, said there had been "virtually zero progress" on these issues from the junta.

Premier Li Qiang of China -- long Myanmar's most important ally -- will hold talks with ASEAN leaders on Thursday before joining an "ASEAN Plus Three" summit with new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea.

The South China Sea will also be discussed when the leaders sit down with Li, after months of violent clashes between Chinese vessels and Philippine and Vietnamese fishermen.

Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, a waterway of immense strategic importance through which trillions of dollars in trade transits every year.

Four ASEAN members -- the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Brunei -- have competing claims to various small islands and reefs.

The draft summit statement reiterated ASEAN's longstanding calls for restraint and respect for international law.

U.Campbell--SFF