San Francisco Frontiers - Austria faces uncertainty after historic far-right election win

The far-right Freedom Party (FPOe) under Herbert Kickl has rapidly regained ground lost in a string of corruption scandals, winning 28.8 percent in Sunday's vote, according to preliminary projections.

The FPOe beat the ruling conservative People's Party (OeVP) (26.3 percent) into second place and the left-wing Social Democrats (SPOe) into third on 21.1 percent.

But all other parties have refused to work with Kickl because of his radical proposals.

"Winner -- and what now?" said the daily Kurier's main headline with a photo of Kickl giving a thumbs-up.

A vocal critic of the European Union and its sanctions against Russia for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Kickl's abrasiveness has left him isolated among Austrian lawmakers -- and beyond.

Uncertainty over what would happen next dominated the Alpine country, as Kickl's FPOe could end up being sidelined like some of its far-right allies in Europe.

"Times are changing," Dutch far-right firebrand Geert Wilders posted on the X social media platform after Austria's election results were announced, listing 11 European countries where nationalist parties were "winning".

In neighbouring Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed the FPOe victory as "another win for the #Patriots". French far-right leader Marine Le Pen expressed "delight" at the "groundswell that carries the defence of national interests, the safeguarding of identities and the resurrection of sovereignties".

- 'Tough and turbulent' talks -

With Sunday's victory ahead of the OeVP, Kickl surpassed results bagged by his predecessors Joerg Haider and Heinz-Christian Strache.

But apart from a few hundred protesters, the far-right win did not trigger major demonstrations.

"We were expecting it, so we're neither totally shocked nor delighted," Isabella, a Vienna woman who declined to give her surname, told AFP.

Austria's powerful Kronen Zeitung tabloid noted that "something revolutionary hangs in the air", adding that coalition talks would be "tough, long and turbulent".

Talks to form a new government in Austria on average take at least two months.

The immediate focus was on President Alexander Van der Bellen, who will choose the politician tasked with forming a government.

"Traditionally, he hands over the mandate to the party that comes first," said Andreas Eisl, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute.

Having voiced past reservations about Kickl, Van der Bellen on Sunday promised to make sure a government is formed that respects the "foundations of our liberal democracy", stressing that it will need the majority support of 92 MPs.

Tasking the FPOe with sounding out partners for a coalition is symbolically charged: it would be a first since 1945 for a party founded by former Nazis and led by a man who has called himself the future "Volkskanzler", the people's chancellor, as Adolf Hitler was termed.

However, Van der Bellen could go back to the conservatives, even after their historic defeat.

"It's a real challenge," said Eisl, noting that the president risks becoming a target of criticism, including by Kickl, who has already slammed what he sees as a "denial of democracy" in the face of his victory.

- Three-way coalition -

If conservative Chancellor Karl Nehammer is asked again he could opt to team up with the the far right, as his party did in 2000 and 2017.

But the conservatives have become more cautious over dealings with the scandal-ridden FPOe, and Kickl does not appear to be inclined to step aside to enable coalition talks, Eisl said.

According to the expert, a "three-party coalition" by the OeVP with the Social Democrats (SPOe) and the liberal NEOS (9.2 percent) could emerge.

"The OeVP and the SPOe have differing views," said retiree Johannes Reiter, adding that they will have to "settle their differences, but ultimately it will happen".

According to the daily Der Standard, Nehammer might drag out talks with other parties before turning to the FPOe.

It would not be the first time the conservative party had "flipped sides", said Eisl.

A.Clark--SFF