San Francisco Frontiers - After Haniyeh's killing, who will lead Hamas?

Speculation is swirling over the crucial succession almost 10 months into the Gaza war which erupted following Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel.

Qatar-based Haniyeh, elected Hamas's political chief in 2017, died in a pre-dawn strike on his accommodation while he was visiting the Iranian capital for the swearing-in ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The context of this succession -- a violent death amid a months-long war in Gaza -- may influence the future of Hamas more than the individual personality of its leader.

Despite the emergence of pragmatists moving toward indirect recognition of Israel's right to exist, Hamas members remain committed to an uncompromising approach to the struggle for a Palestinian state, including through armed means.

A source from the group told AFP that "relations with Arab and Islamic countries" will also be taken into account in picking its next leader.

Here are some of the senior officials tipped as Hamas's next potential political leader:

- Khalil al-Hayya -

Khalil al-Hayya is the deputy head of Hamas's political bureau in the Gaza Strip, and said to be well acquainted with the group's leader in the territory Yahya Sinwar.

In 2006 Hayya headed Hamas's parliamentary bloc, which had just won elections. The subsequent months of political and administrative discord marked the beginning of the schism between the Islamist movement and Fatah, the party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas.

Hayya, who has repeatedly stressed the importance of armed struggle, lost several family members in Israeli military operations including one that targeted his house in the northern Gaza Strip in 2007.

- Musa Abu Marzuk -

The senior member of Hamas's political bureau is considered similar to Haniyeh in his pragmatic approach to negotiations.

For instance, Marzuk has spoken out in favour of a "long-term ceasefire" with Israel, and favours accepting the Palestinian borders drawn after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, which remains contentious for some within Hamas.

In the 1990s he lived in the United States, where he was arrested on charges of raising funds for the movement's armed wing. He then lived in exile, including in Jordan, Egypt and Qatar.

He has previously been mentioned as a possible successor to Hamas leaders, without success so far.

- Zaher Jabarin -

Hamas's long-time treasurer was close to Haniyeh, and has sometimes been described as one of his right-hand men.

After being detained in Israeli prisons, he was released in 2011 as part of an exchange for the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier held hostage for five years.

Jabarin, who has strong ties with Turkey, where he once lived, has recruited people for large-scale money-laundering activities, two of whom were arrested in Israel in 2018.

He has also taken part in deadly operations carried out by Hamas's armed wing.

- Khaled Meshaal -

Haniyeh's predecessor has lived in exile since 1967, in Jordan, Qatar, Syria and other countries.

He was propelled to the head of the movement after Israel killed Hamas's founder, Ahmed Yassin, and then his successor Abdelaziz al-Rantisi.

In 1997 Meshaal survived a poisoning assassination attempt in Amman by agents of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service.

While living in Syria, he criticised the Damascus regime for its violent repression of anti-government protests, a crackdown which had caused friction with Iran, Syria's strategic ally and a major supporter of Hamas.

- Yahya Sinwar -

Sinwar, elected in February 2017 to lead Hamas in the Gaza Strip, is a hardliner and an alleged mastermind of the October 7 attack.

The ascetic 61-year-old spent 23 years in Israeli prisons before being released in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange.

Born in Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip, he joined Hamas when it was founded in 1987, the year of the first intifada or uprising.

He would go on to establish Majd, the group's internal security service.

The former elite commander in the Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas's armed wing, is wanted by Israel and appears on the United States' list of sanctioned international terrorists.

Sinwar, who shrouds his movements in the highest secrecy, has not appeared in public since October 7.

G.Miller--SFF