San Francisco Frontiers - Ukraine war pushes eurozone inflation to new record

Last month's rise marked a further acceleration in inflation from February, which at 5.9 percent year-on-year was already a eurozone record, it said.

The surge has been fuelled by a 44.7-percent hike in energy prices over the year as Europe found itself caught in an oil and gas crunch due to tensions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde warned Wednesday that a prolonged Ukraine conflict will keep energy prices and the cost of living spiralling, blighting a post-Covid recovery.

Similar leaps in inflation have been seen in the United States where the Federal Reserve is committed to a long series of interest hikes to cool the economy and stem the price hikes.

But the ECB is reluctant for now to take similar measures, convinced that the rise in the cost of living is linked to the war as well as lingering disruptions to the global supply chains brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

But given inflation's relentless pace, analysts said Lagarde would soon have no choice but to rethink her policy.

"With euro-zone inflation rising even further above the ECB's forecast, and likely to remain very high for the rest of the year, we think it won't be long before the Bank starts raising interest rates," said Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics.

- 'No painless options' -

Of particular concern for policy makers is core inflation, which strips out volatile components such as energy and food. It soared to 3.0 percent in March, Eurostat said.

This is a full percentage point on top of the ECB's target of two percent and will give armour to critics that argue for interest hikes to face down inflation.

"The inflation data speak for themselves," said Joachim Nagel, the central bank governor from Germany, Europe's biggest economy that traditionally wants stronger medicine against higher prices.

"Monetary policy should not pass up the opportunity for timely countermeasures," he said.

But economists warn that raising interest rates would put the brakes on the post pandemic recovery, with officials already warning that current forecasts for growth in Europe are certain to take a hit due to the war.

"The question is whether the worst is behind us now and that seems doubtful," said Bert Colijn of ING bank.

"The ECB is running out of painless options to battle current economic problems, so we expect it to tread carefully," he added.

H.King--SFF