San Francisco Frontiers - Stocks stable, oil climbs at end of volatile week

After trading in negative territory most of the day, European stock markets turned higher at the close, shrugging off concerns about aggressive monetary tightening by different central banks around the world, sky-high inflation and soaring commodity prices.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Wall Street was also stable.

OANDA analyst Craig Erlam suggested that "an unhealthy amount of complacency (could be) creeping into the markets".

"The rebound we've seen over the last couple of weeks has been nothing short of extraordinary," Erlam said.

"I understand that markets probably fell too far against the backdrop of immense uncertainty... but when it comes to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and negotiations, I can't help but think we should take apparent progress with a pinch of salt. Instead, investors appear to be taking everything at face value," the expert said.

The International Monetary Fund, World Bank and other top world lenders, for their part, warned of "extensive" economic fallout from the war in Ukraine and expressed "horror" at the "devastating human catastrophe".

"The entire global economy will feel the effects of the crisis through slower growth, trade disruptions, and steeper inflation," the institutions -- including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development -- wrote in a joint statement.

Warning that the world could face the "biggest oil supply shock in decades", the International Energy Agency called on governments to urgently implement measures to cut global crude consumption within months.

The IEA also urged OPEC+, the group of oil producers led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, to act to "relieve the strain" on the markets at their next meeting.

In addition to the war, central bank actions were in sharp focus this week.

While the Federal Reserve announced the first of what many think will be seven interest-rate hikes this year, traders have largely accounted for a period of tighter monetary policy.

- Oil price pressure -

But for investors, the overriding question were further developments in the war.

US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held talks, with the White House looking to get Beijing onside in trying to bring an end to the European conflict.

That comes as Russia appeared to play down reports of progress in talks with Ukraine on a ceasefire, while the Pentagon warned Vladimir Putin could threaten to use nuclear weapons if the conflict dragged on.

But while the extreme volatility caused by Russia's invasion has died down for now, commentators remain cautious.

The uncertainty over Ukraine, and reports that some lockdown measures in Chinese tech hub Shenzhen -- which helped fuel a market sell-off earlier this week -- were being eased early, has helped push oil prices back up above $100 per barrel.

Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said the oil price would probably remain elevated.

"Market internals suggest that oil's downside remains sticky even when Ukraine and Russia are inching towards peace," he said.

"So there is a genuine belief that even if the war does end, sanctions on Russia will likely persist, making oil supplies tougher to source for longer."

- Key figures around 1545 GMT -

New York - DOW: FLAT at 34,483.02 points

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 7,404.73 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: UP 0.2 percent at 14,413.09 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.1 percent at 6,620. (24close)

EURO STOXX 50: UP 0.6 percent at 3,902.44

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 21,412.40 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 26,827.43 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 1.1 percent at 3,251.07 (close)

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.5 percent at $107.15 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.9 percent at $102.60 per barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1060 from $1.1095 late Thursday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3187 from $1.3149

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.85 pence from 84.35 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 119.15 yen from 118.64 yen

burs-spm/har

E.Jones--SFF