San Francisco Frontiers - Absent Trump set to steal show at Republican debate

The former president announced at the weekend that he would not be in Milwaukee for the two-hour event, depriving a chasing pack of rivals -- who he leads by a large margin -- of the opportunity to take shots at him.

"President Trump has already won this evening's debate because everything is going to be about him," said Chris LaCivita, a senior aide on the 77-year-old billionaire's campaign.

"Only President Trump has the policy ideas, the fortitude, and the polling to go head-to-head with Crooked Joe Biden in the general election."

With the widest polling lead in more than 40 years of Republican presidential nominating contests, Trump has made it clear he sees no benefit to debating his trailing challengers.

He has instead recorded an interview with former Fox News star Tucker Carlson, to be posted online as the debate gets underway.

"'SPARKS WILL FLY.' ENJOY!" he teased on his social network, Truth Social.

Despite his no-show, Trump will loom over the debate stage, with his multiple prosecutions set to be the subject of questions from the Fox News hosts moderating the event.

- DeSantis struggles -

The former reality TV star may also deprive his rivals of post-debate headlines as he surrenders to authorities in Atlanta on Thursday afternoon over his fourth indictment of the year, for an alleged criminal conspiracy to steal the 2020 election.

His former attorney Rudy Giuliani, who is charged with racketeering in the case alongside Trump and 17 other co-defendants, surrendered in Georgia's capital hours before the debate.

"I am very, very honored to be involved in this case, because this case is a fight for our way of life," Giuliani told reporters outside the county jail in Atlanta.

For Trump's closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the debate could be a chance to reverse flagging poll numbers and demonstrate that he is a viable alternative to the frontrunner.

Candidates will likely be asked about competition with China and America's foreign policy in Ukraine and Russia -- an issue that caused DeSantis to stumble early in the campaign.

With a seismic shift needed to dethrone Trump, the debate could also act as a showcase for candidates angling to be Trump's running mate.

Lower profile candidates like businessman Vivek Ramaswamy will see the event as a chance to introduce themselves to the wider public -- as well as perhaps make their case for jobs in a future Trump administration.

"Tonight's Republican undercard event really shouldn’t even be called a debate, but rather an audition to be a part of President Trump's team in his second term," LaCivita said.

- 'Not a coronation' -

But analysts have argued that with more than four months until the first nomination votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, it is too early to call the race.

"If the same person finishes first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire, this becomes a two-person race no matter how many other people (are) in it... Nobody's caught the wave yet but somebody's going to and when they do, Trump's going to have a race on his hands," former US senator Judd Gregg told political outlet The Hill.

Trump dodged a debate in Iowa in 2016, ensuring that his closest rival Ted Cruz took all the heat, and the DeSantis team is expecting a similar dynamic on Wednesday.

Trump won't have it all his own way, though, with distant underdogs Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson both hoping for a breakout moment skewering the former president, and his former vice president Mike Pence unlikely to pull his punches.

"I think it's fair when these other candidates say it's not a coronation, it's an election," debate co-moderator Bret Baier said. 

I.Wright--SFF