San Francisco Frontiers - Fears of meddling as Guatemala votes in tense runoff

Three decades after the end of a brutal civil war, the Central American nation is dogged by poverty, violence, and graft, sending thousands abroad every year in search of a better life, many to the United States.

Reformist outsider Bernardo Arevalo pulled off a massive upset by finishing second in the first round, and will face off against Sandra Torres in the runoff. A recent poll shows Arevalo with a strong lead.

Both are social democrats, meaning Guatemala will have its first leftist leader in over a decade.

The victor will replace unpopular right-wing President Alejandro Giammattei, who served the legally allowed one-term limit.

Observers have decried state efforts to protect a corrupt system benefiting those in power, with several prosecutors and journalists detained or forced to flee into exile under Giammattei.

The corrupt "have progressively taken control of all state institutions," former attorney general Claudia Paz y Paz -- who is now exiled in Costa Rica -- told AFP.

Arevalo of the Semilla (Seed) party is leading with 50 percent according to the most recent poll by CID Gallup and the Freedom and Development Foundation, with Torres coming in second with 32 percent.

Torres, 67, is the ex-wife of deceased leftist president Alvaro Colom. She is taking her fourth shot at the presidency and has focused on violent crime and poverty.

- 'Maybe I will stay' -

The first round in June saw low voter turnout and more than 17 percent of invalid ballots cast, with little hope among Guatemalans that their fortunes would change.

However the arrival of Arevalo -- the son of Juan Jose Arevalo, Guatemala's first democratically-elected president after decades of dictatorship -- has shaken up the election race.

"As young people we hope that the country will change ... and that every youth without a job will have one because of the new government," said nursing student Wilson Itzep, from the western town of Chinique.

"Yes, I have felt the need to emigrate due to the lack of work, and poverty. But if Semilla wins, maybe I will stay."

Arevalo's rise also shook up the establishment, with nine right-wing parties seeking a review of first-round results and prosecutors trying to have Arevalo's Semilla party disqualified.

Raids were carried out against Semilla offices, as well as those of the electoral board, prompting the United Nations, European Union, and Organization of American States (OAS) to raise the alarm over efforts to undermine the vote.

- 'Very worried' -

And just days before the vote prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche -- sanctioned by Washington for corruption -- said he did "not rule out" more raids and possible arrests after the elections.

"It's no secret that we are very worried," OAS secretary general Luis Almagro said a week prior to the vote.

However, he said Giammattei had vowed to peacefully transfer power to the victor.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk in July expressed "deep concern at attempts to undermine the electoral process in Guatemala."

Arevalo, a 64-year-old sociologist, claims to be the victim of "political persecution by a corrupt minority that knows it is losing power by the day."

He told AFP in an interview in June that his priority would be cracking down on graft.

Guatemala has some of the worst poverty, malnutrition and child mortality rates in Latin America, according to the World Bank.

The murder rate is one of the highest in the world, with many killings attributed to gang violence related to drug trafficking.

Both candidates oppose the legalization of same-sex marriage and elective abortion in the staunchly Catholic country.

Some 9.4 million of the country's 17.6 million people are eligible to vote when polls open at 7:00 am (1300GMT). Voting will end at 6:00 pm with first results expected later that evening.

The victor will take power on January 14.

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Q.Nelson--SFF