San Francisco Frontiers - Turkmenistan readies for father-son succession during polls

Nine candidates are contesting the ballot, but few doubt that strongman Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov's 40-year-old son Serdar -- who has pledged to continue his father's course -- will take over the hermit country's top job.

Berdymukhamedov senior, who is Turkmenistan's president, chair of the cabinet and senate chief, has been the regime's top decision-maker for the last 15 years.

The 64-year-old leader announced last month that he would step down to allow "young leaders" to govern. He has said however that he will remain in politics as head of the senate, a position that is second to the presidency.

Berdymukhamedov senior took power in 2006, after the death of Saparmurat Niyazov, the so-called "Father of the Turkmen", whose rule created the blueprint for repression and leadership cults in the country of six million people.

Both men are feted with golden statues in Ashgabat, a capital city of one million people dominated by marble-coated buildings.

Elsewhere in the city, statues of Russia and Ukraine's legendary wordsmiths Alexander Pushkin and Taras Shevchenko stand just 50 metres (55 yards) apart.

But government-controlled media have completely blanked the two-week-old conflict, Europe's biggest since World War II.

With internet slow and many foreign news websites blocked, Turkmen citizens turn to satellite dishes in order to access international news, although authorities crack down on them, too.

Oraz, a 66-year-old pensioner who only gave his first name, said he was aware of fighting in Ukraine.

"We worry for our brotherly nations that lived (for) hundreds of years in peace. We hope there will be peace again!" he said.

- 'Father close by' -

State television's fawning celebrations of Berdymukhamedov's hobbies -- horse riding, songwriting and rally car driving to name a few -- have made the strongman a phenomenon on foreign social media, all of which are blocked in the country.

But Ashgabat residents interviewed by AFP admitted that they know little about his son, whose rise through government only began receiving publicity after he won a lawmaker's seat in 2016.

Civil servant Selbi Nepesova, 39, said Serdar Berdymukhamedov's official biography proves he is "the most experienced" of the candidates, despite being younger than his rivals, most of whom are low-ranking government employees.

"People who worked with him know more about him than us simple folk," Nepesova told AFP. "He will have his father close by."

In recent years he has tried out roles including deputy foreign minister and a regional governor.

Last year came his biggest promotion of all as he rose to deputy chair of the cabinet and a member of the security council, effectively becoming second-in-command.

Ruslan Myatiev, editor of the Europe-based independent Turkmen.news website, told AFP that as yet unspecified changes to the constitution promised by the outgoing president may see greater powers given to the legislature "in case something goes wrong with Serdar".

The election is not expected to affect the country's neutral foreign policy, which was honed under Niyazov and maintained by Berdymukhamedov.

Turkmenistan traditionally "keeps silence in international crises", including over the war in Ukraine, said Myatiev, who noted that 270 Turkmen students were returning to Turkmenistan on an evacuation flight from Bucharest on Wednesday after fleeing Ukraine.

- 'Big responsibility' -

Serdar Berdymukhamedov has called his presidential run "a big responsibility not only for me, but also for the entire young generation brought up over the years of independence".

Residents in Ashgabat said they hoped for positive changes in an economy that has struggled to recover from the 2014 oil price crash and remains strongly dependent on Chinese demand for natural gas.

Guvanch Ilyasov, a 36-year-old businessman, said he wanted an end to the ban on foreign currency exchange that went into effect after the price crash.

"It has made life difficult for businesses that used to buy products and equipment abroad," Ilyasov said.

Yulia Krasnova, a 58-year-old pensioner, said she yearned for regular flights out of Turkmenistan, which were halted at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic -- the government has not acknowledged a single case of the disease -- and have not resumed.

"This is what I am dreaming of," said Krasnova, who wants to visit her daughter and grandchildren in Russia.

T.Rivera--SFF