San Francisco Frontiers - Putin survives Wagner revolt but forced to cut deal

The agreement appears to end the immediate threat that Yevgeny Prigozhin's private army could storm Moscow, but analysts said Wagner's revolt had exposed a fragility in Putin's rule.

Security measures imposed under an "anti-terrorism operation" were still in place in Moscow on Sunday, and Prigozhin's exact whereabouts were unclear, but his troops had left a military headquarters they had seized in southern Russia.

The long-standing feud between Prighozin and military top brass over the conduct of the Russian operation in Ukraine boiled over on Saturday when Wagner forces seized the base in Rostov-on-Don and embarked on a long advance towards Moscow.

Putin denounced the action as treason and vowed to punish the perpetrators, accusing them of pushing Russia to the brink of civil war -- only to then accept a rapidly cobbled-together agreement to avert Russia's most serious security crisis in decades.

- 'Russian blood' -

Within hours of Prigozhin's surprise announcement that his forces would return to base to avoid "spilling Russian blood", the Kremlin announced that Putin's former ally would leave for Belarus and that Russia would not prosecute him nor Wagner's troops.

By early Sunday, Wagner had pulled out of Rostov-on-Don, the regional governor said, but before they left dozens of residents were cheering and chanting "Wagner! Wagner!" outside the military headquarters they had captured.

Ukraine revelled in the chaos, stepping up its own counteroffensive against Russian forces in the country and mocking Putin's apparent humiliation.

Analysts also said that the deal had exposed weakness in the Russian president's grip on power.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said he had negotiated the truce with Prigozhin. Moscow thanked him, but observers noted that an intervention by Lukashenko, usually seen as Putin's very junior partner, was itself an embarrassment.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later said the criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped and he would go to Belarus, while members of Wagner who had taken part in what authorities dubbed an "armed rebellion" would not be prosecuted.

In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky's senior aide Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted: "Prigozhin humiliated Putin/the state and showed that there is no longer a monopoly on violence."

While Russia claimed the rebellion had no impact on its Ukraine campaign, Kyiv said the unrest offered a "window of opportunity" as the nation pressed its long-awaited counter-offensive.

And experts said that the truce would probably not be the end of the story of Prighozin's feud with Moscow, with Putin now being obliged to take measures to restore his authority.

In addition to providing some of the most successful shock troops fighting in Ukraine, Prigozhin's outfit conducts several mercenary operations in the Middle East and West Africa.

These missions are seen to have the Kremlin's backing and amount to Russian influence operations to curry favour with African governments and win access to mineral resources.

Independent political analyst Konstantin Kalachev told AFP: "The crisis of institutions and trust was not obvious to many in Russia and the West yesterday. Today, it is clear.

"Yesterday's call for unity made by representatives of the elites only confirmed this. Behind these is a crisis of institutions and fears for themselves," he said.

"Putin's position is weakened," he said. "Putin underestimated Prigozhin, just as he underestimated Zelensky before that ... He could have stopped this with a phone call to Prigozhin but he did not."

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, Lukashenko's direct role in negotiating the truce would be "humiliating to Putin".

"The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium," it said.

"The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin's rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD."

The United States and its Western allies, who back Ukraine in its battle against Russia, publicly stayed on the sidelines of the revolt amid concerns that Putin's control over the nuclear-armed country could be slipping.

Security was tightened in Moscow city centre, with armed men in flak jackets guarding the parliament building and Red Square closed off to the public.

"I don't know how to react. In any case it's very sad this is happening," 35-year-old Yelena told AFP, declining to give her last name.

- 'A blow to Russia' -

On Saturday as the Wagner force headed north towards Putin on a major highway, Putin accused Prigozhin of a "stab in the back" that posed a threat to Russia's very survival.

While Prigozhin's outfit fought at the forefront of Russia's offensive in Ukraine, he repeatedly blamed Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, for under-supplying his units.

K.Hernandez--SFF