San Francisco Frontiers - Court case challenges New Zealand's 'magical thinking' climate plans

After unravelling a string of green policies since it came to power in 2023, the right-leaning government is accused of relying too heavily on unproven future technologies to meet its legally binding carbon emission targets.

Lawyers for Climate Action and the Environmental Law Initiative took Climate Change Minister Simon Watts to court in March, arguing the government was not doing enough.

Watts has declined to comment because the matter is before the courts, with a decision due later this year.

New Zealand's goal, enshrined in law, is to have net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, excluding methane produced by waste and agriculture.

Wellington sets five-yearly targets to meet its goal, which was passed overwhelmingly by lawmakers in 2019.

Lawyers for Climate Action co-founder James Every-Palmer, a senior barrister, told AFP the five-yearly climate budgets were "an extremely important part of the parliamentary response to climate change".

But the centre-right ruling coalition has rolled back key climate policies put in place by the previous Labour government of Jacinda Ardern.

- Law and magic -

It cancelled a clean car discount incentivising electric vehicle uptake, reversed a ban on oil and gas exploration, and began a fast-track scheme for mining permits.

In January 2025, the government said it aimed to reduce carbon emissions by 51 percent from 2005 levels by 2035 -- barely changed from a 50-percent cut targeted for 2030.

Every-Palmer said Wellington now risked missing its legislated targets, and exceeding its so-called climate budget.

"The minister has a legal obligation to ensure that the budget's met," he said.

"The government's own analysis was that effectively it was a coin-toss chance that we would meet the targets."

Instead, it has announced an "adaptive management policy", which Every-Palmer characterised as meaning that "if things are going off the rails, we will look at what we can do at the time".

That risks waiting to do something until it is too late to stay on track for the 2050 goal, he said.

"It's fine to have policies that you implement if you need them, but they have to be real policies," he said.

"They can't be just magical thinking that we'll come up with something at the time."

He and other campaigners argue the government is relying too heavily on theoretical technologies to mitigate climate change.

He cited Wellington's decision to invest in science and businesses seeking to build methane-reducing, carbon capture, and green hydrogen technologies in the future.

- 'Back to reality' -

The case is part of a growing body of climate litigation around the world, with courts from South Korea to Germany pushing governments to take climate change more seriously.

The German decision in 2021 found the government's plans were unconstitutional because they relied too much on future developments, leaving much of the emissions-cutting burden to the next generation.

"The law generally doesn't have much truck with magic," said Jenny Cooper, another senior barrister and co-founder of Lawyers for Climate Action.

"That's one of the reasons why we see litigation as quite a good way to air these issues and bring them back to reality."

J.Scott--SFF