San Francisco Frontiers - China's BYD poised to overtake Tesla in 2025 EV sales

The two groups are expected soon to publish their final figures for 2025, and based on sales data so far this year, there is almost no chance the American company led by Elon Musk will retain its leadership position.

At the end of November, Shenzhen-based BYD, which also produces hybrid vehicles, had sold 2.07 million EVs so far in 2025.

Tesla, for its part, had sold 1.22 million by the end of September.

Tesla's September figures included a one-time boost in sales, to nearly half-a-million vehicles in a three-month period, before the expiration of a US tax credit for buyers of electric vehicles -- which ended under legislation backed by President Donald Trump, a climate change skeptic.

But Tesla's sales in the coming quarter are expected to fall to 449,000, according to a FactSet analysis consensus. That would give Tesla about 1.65 million sales for all of 2025, a drop of 7.7 percent and well below the level BYD had attained by end November.

Deutsche Bank, which projects just 405,000 Tesla EV sales during the fourth quarter, sees the company's sales down by around one-third in both North America and Europe, and by one-tenth in China.

- Transition period -

Industry watchers say it will take time for EV demand to reach a level of equilibrium in the United States following the elimination of the $7,500 US tax credit at the end of September 2025.

Even prior to that, Tesla had seen sales struggle in key markets over CEO Musk's political support of Trump and other far-right politicians. Tesla has also faced rising EV competition from BYD and other Chinese companies and from European giants.

"We believe Tesla will see some weakness on deliveries" in the fourth quarter, said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities.

Sales of 420,000 would be "good enough to show stable demand," with Wall Street "laser focused on the autonomous chapter kicking off in 2026," Ives added, referring to plans for self-driving vehicles.

Even as it has grown quickly, BYD has faced challenges in its home market.

With profitability in China weighed down by price-wary consumers, the company has sought to strengthen its foothold in foreign markets.

BYD is "one of the pioneers to establish overseas production capacity and supply chains for EVs," Jing Yang, Director of Asia-Pacific Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings, told AFP.

"Going forward, its geographical diversification is likely to help it to navigate an increasingly complicated global tariff environment," said Yang.

Overseas rivals to BYD have balked at Chinese state subsidies and other state supports that have allowed the company to sell vehicles cheaply.

Trump's predecessor Joe Biden imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EV imports that could potentially go even higher under Trump. Europe has also imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, but BYD is building manufacturing capacity in Hungary.

While the chance of Tesla reclaiming its global leadership in EVs looks uncertain, the American company is also potentially positioned for growth.

Michaeli of TD Cowen sees autonomous technology playing an increasingly important role for Tesla, with breakthroughs in its "full self-driving" or "FSD" offerings potentially boosting sales.

"As Tesla really begins to roll out eyes-off features and expand FSDs capability, if they do that successfully, that should generate more demand for their vehicles," Michaeli said.

Musk has said the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi model, will begin production in April 2026. The company has also unveiled lower-priced versions of the Models 3 and Y that could boost sales.

J.Martinez--SFF