San Francisco Frontiers - Ukraine war and climate stalemate loom over G20 summit

Chinese President Xi Jinping -- the most powerful leader at the summit -- repeated his warning of turbulent times ahead, warning his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in a meeting of increasing "risks and challenges."

Macron told Russia ally Xi that the two shared "converging views" on seeing peace brought about in Ukraine, while also expressing concern about "bellicose and escalatory comments from Russia about its nuclear doctrine."

Xi has sought in vain, with Brazil, to get Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table but developments in the war are rapidly overtaking diplomacy.

President Joe Biden, at the G20 summit as a diminished figure given Trump's imminent arrival on the world scene, made a last-gasp major policy shift by allowing Ukraine to fire US-supplied long-range missiles into Russia.

Russia, which has warned it will respond if targeted by the weapons, said Tuesday Ukraine fired US ATACMS missiles into its border region.

- Russia warning -

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists at the Rio de Janeiro summit "that meant they were operated by US military experts" and "we consider this a new phase in the West's war against Russia, and we will react."

In what was seen as a threat of nuclear escalation, he suggested Western capitals read "all" of Russia's nuclear doctrine to understand the risks.

Lavrov was standing in at the summit for President Vladimir Putin, who is the target of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant.

The summit's joint declaration on Monday made no mention of Moscow's aggression in the war, saying only that the leaders welcomed "all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace" in Ukraine.

Macron has called Biden's decision to free Ukraine's hand with US missiles "good". But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said it would not follow suit and continued to hold out on giving sophisticated Taurus missiles to Kyiv.

The summit statement also had the leaders urging an end to conflict in the Middle East, where Israel is waging offensives in both Gaza and Lebanon. Israel and archenemy Iran have also exchanged fire.

The G20 called for "comprehensive" ceasefires in both Gaza and Lebanon.

- 'History is watching' -

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has sought to use his hosting duties to steer the summit towards his progressive agenda, rallying support for a global campaign against hunger and trying to spur on stalled UN climate talks happening concurrently in Azerbaijan's capital Baku.

"We cannot leave the task of Baku until Belem," Lula said Tuesday, referring to the Amazonian city that will host next year's UN climate talks.

The G20 summit statement on Monday fell short of expectations held by negotiators at Baku's COP29 conference.

While acknowledging the need for trillions of dollars in climate finance for poorer nations, it failed to explicitly mention the need to transition away from fossil fuels.

Lula said that next year's conference would be the "last chance" to avoid "irreversible" damage wrought by Earth's warming.

Biden threw his weight behind getting the COP29 back on track, telling the G20 summit: "History is watching us."

He added: "I urge us to keep the faith and keep going. This is the single greatest existential threat to humanity."

- Plot against Lula -

The summit was rocked by the arrest on Tuesday of four Brazilian soldiers, on the suspicion they were part of a plot to assassinate Lula in 2022.

A federal police source told AFP the four "were arrested in Rio, where they were participating in the security operation for the G20 leaders' meeting," and that a police officer was also arrested.

The military, however, said the four arrested soldiers were not part of the G20 security detail.

Brazilian police said they were suspected of plotting a "coup" against Lula just before he took up his current mandate.

Q.Nelson--SFF