San Francisco Frontiers - Chocolate prices high before Christmas despite cocoa fall

AFP examines the reasons for the divergence and the current state of the cocoa market.

- West Africa at heart -

Ivory Coast and Ghana are the world's biggest suppliers of pods -- the fruit of the cocoa tree -- from which cocoa beans are extracted to make chocolate.

The two west African countries account for more than half of global production, with most of the remainder coming from Brazil, Cameroon, Ecuador, Indonesia and Nigeria.

The geographic concentration of plantations makes the cocoa market highly vulnerable to West Africa's weather patterns and tree diseases.

Cultivation is meanwhile carried out by a very large number of independent smallholders.

- Record high prices in 2024 -

Cocoa harvests between 2021 and 2024 failed to meet demand, which sent prices soaring.

"That was the result of ... supply side issues like ageing trees, the spread of swollen shoot virus (and) the spread of black pot disease" in Ghana and Ivory Coast, Rabobank analyst Oran van Dort told AFP.

Low usage of fertiliser and pesticides, owing to farmers' low incomes, also contributed, he added.

In December 2024, cocoa prices reached $12,000 per tonne in New York trading, having stood at between $1,000 and $4,000 since the 1980s.

- Bean harvests pick up -

In Ghana and Ivory Coast, cocoa prices -- which rose significantly this year after having remained unchanged for a long time -- are set by the countries' respective governments.

"For the first time in years, I feel like we are farming with the government behind us, not on our own," Ghanaian producer Kwame Adu, 52, told AFP.

Higher income has allowed producers to buy fertiliser and machinery, improving their harvests -- and to plant new trees.

"Last year went well because as the cocoa was to bear fruit the rains came," Jean Kouassi, a 50-year-old Ivorian farmer, told AFP.

He owns plantations measuring four hectares, the size of nearly six football pitches.

- Less cocoa in products -

"Record-high raw material costs (have) forced chocolate manufacturers into a series of unpopular choices: shrinkflation, price increases and the quiet dilution of cocoa content," noted Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

UK snack brand McVitie's recently disclosed that Penguin and Club bars are no longer classed as chocolate having reduced their cocoa content because of elevated prices.

They are instead each described as "chocolate flavour".

It is a major reversal especially for Club, whose advertising campaigns carried the slogan: "If you like a lot of chocolate on your biscuit, join our club."

Chocolate giants Ferrero, Mars, Mondelez and Nestle have meanwhile seen demand weaken, having raised the prices of their treats.

However, cocoa prices have retreated strongly compared to one year ago, with New York prices at around $6,000 per tonne.

- Chocolate still costly -

"The current slump arrives far too late to affect Christmas assortments already produced and priced months ago," said Hansen.

Nestle told AFP that "it is still too early to comment on specific changes regarding prices" in the wake of cocoa's drop.

"Recent shifts in cocoa prices are encouraging, but the market remains volatile," it added.

There is hope, however, for Easter eggs and chocolate bunnies set to hit shop shelves soon after Christmas, said Hansen -- but only if the market stabilises around current levels, he added.

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L.Lopez--SFF