San Francisco Frontiers - US shutdown scorecard: Who cashed in, who crashed out

Democrats lost the end game but may end up winning the narrative. Republicans held their ground but risk longer-term scars. President Donald Trump projected strength to supporters but was exposed for policy weakness. And the public? They're just sick of the whole show.

With the drama in the rear-view mirror, here's how the dust is settling.

- Democrats: Bruised but banking on tomorrow -

Yes, they folded. Yes, critics called it a cave-in. And yes, the headlines are screaming "retreat."

But, with Trump in power, most Democrats knew they were never going to achieve their stated goal of an extension for expiring health care subsidies.

Instead, they were able to win a major consolation prize -- turning the spotlight on an issue that fires up their base.

Democrats have signaled they plan to make affordability, especially when it comes to health care, a major focus in next year's midterms.

"That will force Republicans to show their cards, keep the story alive and make Republicans scramble to introduce a health care policy of their own -- something that has eluded them for 15 years," said political analyst Donald Nieman.

- Republicans: Policy win, PR defeat -

In the short term, Republicans can claim a policy win. They kept extended health care subsidies off the table and dodged a messy civil war.

Before Democrats let Republicans off the hook, Trump had been spoiling for a fight with his own party, demanding an unpopular overhaul of Senate rules to end the shutdown and -- in the longer term -- give him more power to enact his agenda.

Republicans were also able to sow division among Democrats, who ought to be celebrating sweeping recent state elections but are instead at each other's throats -- with the furious progressive base berating the leadership for folding.

"Because of the shutdown and the Democrats' ultimate cave to the Republicans, I would expect that several Democrats will now get a primary challenge from a more progressive member of the party," said Matthew N. Klink, a veteran political strategist and communications expert.

But politically, it's more complicated. Polling showed Republicans shouldered most of the blame for the shutdown as the party in charge, and the side that was digging in its heels on health care.

"A year from now, no one will be voting on the memory of the shutdown. But they will be voting on affordability," said political strategist Andrew Koneschusky.

"The shutdown helped flip the script, creating real political risk for Republicans and giving Democrats momentum on the central issue driving our politics right now."

- Trump: The art of not blinking -

Trump walked away looking like the guy who never flinches. He let Congress take the heat while projecting strength to his base -- and taunting Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer when the fight was over.

"He thought he could break the Republicans and the Republicans broke him," Trump told Fox News.

But the fight exposed a glaring hole: Trump still has no health care plan of his own. For now, he's the swaggering victor -- but that gap could haunt him if health care dominates 2026.

And while he initially appeared unscathed, Trump's approval rating has now reached its lowest point of his second term, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), dropping more than five points over the past two weeks to 41.8 percent.

- The public: Tired of the circus -

Federal workers sweated pay checks, services stalled and voters got another reminder of Washington's dysfunction. If there's a winner here, it's cynicism. Americans hate shutdowns, and this one was just more proof that politics is a blood sport.

And the worrying news? Americans might have to go through it all again in just a few short weeks.

In the deal that broke the impasse, Congress only gave itself until January 30 to strike an agreement on funding most of the government, meaning another shutdown could be around the corner.

"So who won? No one," congressional media outlet Punchbowl News said in a cost-benefit analysis of the standoff.

"This record-breaking shutdown was bad for the country, bad for the economy and especially bad for Congress as an institution."

A.Clark--SFF