San Francisco Frontiers - Climate crunch time in Brussels as EU leaders meet

The EU is under pressure to agree on a 10-year target to cut carbon emissions ahead of the United Nations COP30 climate summit next month. But competing concerns over supporting ailing businesses including Europe's cherished car industry have stalled progress.

"Leaders now have a narrow window to break the deadlock and send a clear signal ahead of COP30," said Elisa Giannelli, of the E3G climate advocacy group.

Tensions between the EU's desire to play a starring role in the fight against global warming and boost its sluggish economy have been bubbling up for months.

Many businesses complain they are being asked to invest in greening their operations at a time when trade tensions and competition from China are squeezing returns.

A growing number of capitals, in what is an increasingly right-leaning bloc, have been receptive to industry's arguments, culminating in a standoff over the headline figure Brussels has put forward to drive its future climate action.

- ' At stake' -

In July, the European Commission said it wanted to cut emissions by 90 percent by 2040, compared to 1990 levels -- a major milestone towards the overarching goal of reaching net-zero by 2050.

The EU executive hoped for member states to greenlight the target ahead of COP30, which starts in Brazil on November 10.

Signatories to the Paris Agreement are supposed to bring an updated 2035 emission reduction plan to the summit, which Brussels was aiming to derive from its 2040 target.

But this has not been forthcoming.

Unable to reach an agreement, last month EU environment ministers passed the ball to the bloc's leaders, who will discuss the matter Thursday.

No decision is expected but the debate is meant to provide fodder for a deal within two weeks.

"Europe's position as a global leader on climate change is at stake, both at the negotiating table and in the fierce economic race to dominate the industries of a carbon-neutral world," said Joseph Dellatte of the Institut Montaigne, a think tank.

Behind only China, the United States and India in terms of emissions -- the EU has been the most committed of the major polluters to climate action, having already cut emissions by 37 percent compared to 1990.

- 'No walk in the park' -

Green advocates say more is needed to help stave off the worst consequences of rising global temperatures and persuade laggards to follow Brussels' lead.

Ambition is also crucial for the bloc to draw investments and become a leader in green technologies, avoiding falling further behind China, they say.

"If a robust, resilient, sustainable and innovative economy is our goal, then dogmatically clinging to our existing business models, whatever their past successes, is not the solution," EU chief Ursula von der Leyen wrote in a letter Monday, urging leaders "to stay the course".

But some like Poland and the Czech Republic, say a 90-percent emissions cut is unachievable and are dragging their feet.

"It's harder to go from 55 to 90 than it is to go from 20 to 55. It's much more expensive. It requires technological breakthroughs and changes in society that aren't easy," said a European diplomat.

In her letter, von der Leyen listed a series of reforms to sweeten the pill, including an early review of a 2035 ban on new combustion engine vehicles paired with a pledge to look into allowing cars running on biofuels or synthetic fuels.

Plans to amend an emissions trading system to avoid fuel price volatility and to allow countries to count some carbon credits towards their 2040 target were also mentioned.

Draft conclusions leaked ahead of the EU summit welcome such steps and urge the commission to include a revision clause in its 2040 proposal to allow future tweaks if needed.

"The negotiations among EU leaders won't be a walk in the park," said Neil Makaroff, of the Strategic Perspectives think tank.

"But a political compromise is within reach."

C.Diaz--SFF