San Francisco Frontiers - French PM set to fall after warning on 'life-threatening' debt

Bayrou, who has been in the job for just nine months, blindsided even his allies by calling a confidence vote to end a lengthy standoff over his austerity budget, which foresees almost 44 billion euros ($52 billion) of cost savings to reduce France's debt pile.

Opposition parties across the board have made it clear they will vote against his minority government, making it highly improbable he will get enough backing to survive -- he needs a majority of the 577 MPs in the National Assembly.

Bayrou is the sixth prime minister under President Emmanuel Macron since the head of state was first elected in 2017. Bayrou's ousting would leave the French leader with a new domestic headache at a time when he is leading diplomatic efforts on the Ukraine war.

But defending his decision to call the high-risk confidence vote, Bayrou told the National Assembly: "The biggest risk was not to take one, to let things continue without anything changing... and have business as usual".

Describing the debt pile as "life-threatening" for France, Bayrou said his government had put forward a plan so that the country could "in a few years' time escape the inexorable tide of debt that is submerging it".

"You have the power to overthrow the government", but not "to erase reality", Bayrou told the MPs. The vote is expected after 1700 GMT.

- Unpopular president -

Bayrou himself appears to acknowledge that his time has run out.

According to officials, he has invited his ministers for farewell drinks Monday evening.

"There are worse things in life than being at the head of a government and seeing that government overthrown," he told the news website Brut.

Bayrou would be the second French prime minister in succession to have suffered such a fate, after Michel Barnier was ejected in December after only three months in office.

The vote will force Macron to face one of the most critical decisions of his presidency: appoint a seventh prime minister to try to thrash out a compromise, or call snap elections in a bid to have a more accommodating parliament.

There is no guarantee an election would result in any improvement in the fortunes of Macron's centre-right bloc in parliament.

While the Socialist Party (PS) has expressed readiness to lead a new government, it is far from clear if such an administration could survive.

According to a poll by Odoxa-Backbone for Le Figaro newspaper, 64 percent of French want Macron to resign rather than name a new prime minister, a move he has ruled out.

He is forbidden from standing for a third term in 2027.

Around 77 percent of people do not approve of his work, Macron's worst-ever such rating, according to an Ifop poll for the Ouest-France daily.

Addressing the crisis after an international summit on Ukraine last Thursday, Macron called on France's political forces to demonstrate "responsibility" and ensure "stability".

- Le Pen ruling -

Alongside political upheaval, France is also facing social tensions.

A left-wing collective calling itself "Block Everything" is calling for a day of action on Wednesday, and trade unions have urged workers to strike on September 18.

The 2027 presidential election meanwhile remains wide-open, with analysts predicting the French far right will have its best-ever chance of winning.

Three-time presidential candidate for the National Rally (RN) Marine Le Pen suffered a blow in March when a French court convicted her and other party officials over an EU parliament fake jobs scam.

Le Pen was sentenced to four years' imprisonment, two of which were suspended, and a fine of 100,000 euros ($117,000).

The ruling also banned her from standing for office for five years, which would scupper her ambition of taking part in the 2027 vote unless overturned on appeal.

But a Paris court said Monday her appeal would be heard from January 13 to February 12, 2026, well before the election -- potentially resurrecting her presidential hopes.

E.Walker--SFF