San Francisco Frontiers - AI's impact on jobs, tech's touchy topic

"We're not worried about tiptoeing around. We're sparking the conversation," said Fahad Alam of Artisan, a startup, at the HumanX AI event.

The San Francisco company is promoting AI agents -- virtual sales representatives that identify potential customers, contact them, write emails, and schedule appointments.

AI agents, which are supposed to make decisions that are usually made by humans, have become the latest buzzword of the generative AI story that began with the release of ChatGPT in 2022.

With its offering, Artisan's typical avatar, Ava, costs 96 percent less than a human performing the same tasks, according to the company's website.

The startup's straight-to-the-point approach sharply contrasts with most generative AI companies, who tread cautiously on whether ChatGPT-like technologies will leave human workers unemployed by the wayside.

"I don't fundamentally think it's about displacing employees as much as better leveraging them for the things only humans can do," said Josh Constine of SignalFire, a venture capital firm.

Predictions can vary wildly. Goldman Sachs estimates AI could eliminate 300 million jobs globally through automation.

An 2024 Metrigy report found 89 percent of firms surveyed reduced customer relations staff in the previous year due to generative AI.

On the other hand, 70 percent of major companies surveyed by the World Economic Forum said they planned to hire workers with AI-related skills in the coming years.

"It's natural evolution," said Joe Murphy of D-iD, which offers video avatars and recently struck a partnership with Microsoft.

"Like the car's invention, AI will create a new sector. Jobs will be created and lost simultaneously."

Supporting this theory, data from the US Department of Labor shows jobs for secretaries and administrative assistants fell from 4.1 million to 3.4 million between 1992 and 2023, coinciding with the rise of office computing.

During the same period, the number of computer scientists more than doubled, from approximately 500,000 to 1.2 million.

Still, given the sensitivities about replacing humans, some advise discretion.

"You're selling software that replaces a significant part of their team," said Tomasz Tunguz, founder of Theory Ventures. "You can't sell that overtly."

"Some clients candidly don't want it known they're using AI," added Alam.

- 'Inevitable' -

There is little doubt that some kind of upheaval of the workplace is underway, but its precise impact remains uncertain.

Analysts predict job losses for programmers, call center operators, translators, and travel agents.

However, others caution against taking bold statements -- or reassurances -- by startups at face value.

"Technology innovators learn communication skills by overstating the positive, underplaying the negative," said Mark Hass, marketing professor at Arizona State University.

But many startups reject the notion they're misleading on job impacts.

"The majority of people we're talking to aren't doing this because of efficiency. They're doing this because of top-line revenue growth," said Paloma Ochi of Decagon, a marketing AI startup.

"And when the business grows, that's good for everyone. There are going to be more jobs for humans within that business."

"Most customers don't want to let people go," said Joshua Rumsey, a senior sales engineer at Aisera, whose AI agents are used in finance and HR. Though they are "looking to grow without hiring new agents as existing ones leave."

Given the disruptions, Hass advocated for greater transparency, warning that surprising the public with negative impacts on livelihoods could lead to backlash.

"Talking about the implications doesn't weaken the case for AI, because I think it's inevitable. Not talking about it in a wholesome way creates the opportunity for misunderstanding," he said.

E.Walker--SFF