San Francisco Frontiers - EU, US eye greater energy ties amid Trump frictions

EU officials appearing on public panels at the CERA Week energy gathering spoke optimistically about the potential for rising US liquefied natural gas exports to play an even bigger role after the fuel offset key supplies following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"Hopefully by 2027, we will be down to zero (fossil fuel imports from Russia)," Jovita Neliupsiene, ambassador of the European Union Delegation to the United States, said on a panel Wednesday.

Earlier this week, Dan Jorgensen, commissioner for energy and housing in the European Commission, said the bloc now gets 13 percent of its gas from Russia, down from 45 percent in February 2022.

"Indirectly we have filled Putin's war chest," said Jorgensen, who described the goal as "100 percent free of molecules from Russia."

The statements come as supplies of US LNG exports appear poised to surge higher after Trump reversed a move by predecessor Joe Biden to freeze LNG export permitting.

Trump administration officials have pointed to higher LNG exports as a way for Europe to address Trump's focus on trade imbalances.

At CERA, Trump's Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum both spoke of LNG exports as a way to bolster an ally.

European officials did not comment on Trump's friendly posture towards Russian President Vladimir Putin which has come as the White House has broadly distanced itself from traditional allies in Europe.

On Wednesday, the European Union unveiled counter-tariffs on US goods after 25 percent US tariffs went into effect on steel and aluminum.

- Europe's dilemma -

While EU officials set government policy, the decisions about fuel transactions are taken at the corporate level, a point alluded to Laurent Ruseckas of S&P Global, who moderated Wednesday's panel, "Energy and the future of European Security."

"It's become sort of a cliche to say that the transatlantic relationship now has become transactional, but in the energy business, transactions are what we're all about," Ruseckas said.

LNG is one place where the United States and Europe are still "potentially extremely well aligned," said Ruseckas.

The Trump administration's positive stance towards fossil fuels is expected to roughly double the amount of US natural gas exported over the next five years, said Matthew Palmer, head of North American natural gas at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Much of the LNG in this growing "wave" has been through relatively short-term contracts between suppliers like Total and Shell and European utilities that may not want to lock themselves into long-term agreements, Palmer said.

"We love the US because you have the cheapest gas of the planet," TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said this week in vowing more US LNG investment.

Begun in 1983 by Daniel Yergin, author of The Prize, a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the oil industry, CERAWeek is an annual Houston gathering that has expanded beyond its petroleum roots to include the power and renewable sectors.

The conference also includes panels with geopolitical experts analyzing what the early days of the Trump administration portends for international alliances.

Europe has realized "they have to go it on their own," said Brookings Institution senior fellow Angela Stent.

"I see now the beginning of a long term shift of the Europeans realizing that what they have had for these past nearly 80 years is really gone."

Some Europeans are privately discussing "why should I trade reliance on Vladimir Putin for reliance on Donald Trump?" said Chris Treanor, executive director of the Partnership to Address Global Emissions.

But the current surge of US LNG investment means "there will be more gas available for European buyers, should they be interested in pursuing it."

C.Williams--SFF