San Francisco Frontiers - Stock markets waver after sell-off over US recession fears

In New York, the Dow index of blue-chip stocks was down 0.5 percent in early deals while the broad-based S&P 500 shed 0.1 percent.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.4 percent, with Tesla and Amazon staging rebounds, one day after the index closed four percent lower in its worst session since 2022.

In Europe, London and Paris fell while Frankfurt staged a modest rebound in afternoon deals. Asia finished mostly in the red.

"Markets are jittery and volatility seems like the only certainty while the White House pushes hard to usher in a new era, seemingly happy for stock markets to be collateral damage," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Traders had initially welcomed Trump's election win in late 2024, optimistic that his promised tax cuts and deregulation would boost the world's biggest economy and help equities push to further record highs.

But there is now growing concern that tariffs against key trading partners will reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to again start raising interest rates and triggering a recession.

Investors will keep a close eye on US consumer inflation data on Wednesday, as it could influence the Fed's next move.

Since taking office in January, Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, though he has allowed a partial and temporary rollback for the two US neighbours.

Tariffs on steel and aluminium are due to take effect on Wednesday, affecting a wide range of producers from Brazil to South Korea and the European Union.

Sweeping cuts to the federal government, overseen by Tesla owner and Trump adviser Elon Musk, have also begun to unnerve investors.

Analysts said investors are also concerned that Trump appears more willing to see stock markets fall than during his first term in office after he said the economy was facing "a period of transition" and he refused to rule out the risk of recession.

"The problem for markets is that this is a man-made crisis," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB trading platform.

Trump's "'bull in a china shop' approach to economic policy has spooked investors. The question is, will it continue to spook consumers, the life blood of the US economy," she said.

- Dollar falls, oil rebounds -

Concerns over the economic outlook also weighed on the dollar, which fell against the euro and the pound.

Oil prices rebounded after dropping more than one percent Monday on worries about demand as US recession speculation builds.

However, both main contracts remain down around seven percent for the year so far.

In company news, shares in Volkswagen fell 0.3 percent as the German auto giant geared up for another tricky year after posting a sharp loss in annual profits for 2024.

Tesla was up more than five percent and Amazon gained 2.5 percent after plunging the previous day, but tech heavyweight Apple extended its losses as it fell 1.8 percent.

- Key figures around 1345 GMT -

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 41,690.09 points

New York - S&P 500: DOWN 0.1 percent at 5,609.64

New York - Nasdaq: UP 0.4 percent at 17,535.19

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.7 percent at 8,539.33

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.5 percent at 8,003.79

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.3 percent at 22,563.70

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.6 percent at 36,793.11 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: FLAT at 23,782.14 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,379.83 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0926 from $1.0836 on Monday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2945 from $1.2878

Dollar/yen: UP at 147.87 yen from 147.26 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 84.44 pence from 84.13 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.3 percent at $66.89 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.3 percent at $70.17 per barrel

M.Gonzalez--SFF