San Francisco Frontiers - US hiring misses expectations in February, jobs market sees pressure

The world's biggest economy added 151,000 jobs last month, up from January's revised 125,000 figure, according to the Labor Department.

The bounceback came after bad weather in January, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent.

Friday's report paints a picture of the employment market in the first full month since Trump returned to the White House in January, amid growing blowback over unprecedented cuts to the US government.

The cost-cutting efforts have been led by Trump's billionaire adviser Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has slashed thousands of federal jobs and upended agencies -- prompting numerous lawsuits.

"Within government, federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February," said the Labor Department.

In the past month or so, Trump has launched a broad offensive aimed at cutting public spending and reducing the federal bureaucracy, one of the goals he promised on the campaign trail ahead of November's election.

But analysts warn that the full impact of the Trump administration's federal workforce cuts are unlikely to be reflected in the February report.

This is because the payroll survey was likely conducted "too early in the month," said EY senior economist Lydia Boussour in a note this week.

"We expect a more visible dent to federal payrolls in March and subsequent months with federal employment likely to see moderate monthly declines," she added.

Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics noted this week as well that the return of weather to seasonal norms likely boosted payroll growth by 15,000 to 25,000.

But Pantheon economists cautioned that "cracks are appearing in the labor market," citing a separate report from outplacement and coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas this week.

While the Challenger report noted tens of thousands of government job cuts, it also flagged significant private sector layoffs, many of them in retail and consumer products industries.

These hint at the impact of "heightened uncertainty around trade policy," said Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Boussour noted: "Steep tariff increases could cause adjustments in business decisions with knock-on effects on hiring and wages as business leaders navigate higher input costs and retaliatory measures."

Already, Trump's sharp tariff hikes on imports from major trading partners Canada and Mexico took effect Tuesday, sparking financial market jitters.

The president has since moderated their scope.

Friday's Labor Department report also showed that wage gains cooled from January to February to 0.3 percent, although compared with a year ago, earnings were still 4.0 percent up.

G.Collins--SFF