San Francisco Frontiers - Why Brazil's Lula is bleeding support

The latest survey from Datafolha puts his popularity rating at 24 percent -- the lowest in the three terms the charismatic former metalworker has served as Brazilian president.

Here are some reasons analysts give for the precipitous fall in his public approval numbers.

- It's the economy -

Lula has promised that 2025 will be the "year of the harvest" of his electoral promises, after spending the first two years "fixing" destruction he said was left behind by his far-right predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.

One of these promises was that under his rule, Brazilians would be back to "eating picanha," a popular cut of beef that had gotten out of reach for many.

However, inflation has kept food prices stubbornly high -- with one meme saying that instead of picanha, Lula had delivered "intermittent fasting."

In January, food prices increased 7.25 percent year-on-year.

Lula's recent suggestion that the population could control food prices by refusing to buy goods they felt were too costly was met with ridicule from the opposition and only irritated Brazilians further.

"It's a fundamental element" of the government's poor image right now, political analyst Andre Cesar told AFP.

Lula has been at loggerheads with the central bank, which has raised its key lending rate to 13.25 percent to combat inflation, with another one-point rise expected in March.

The real reached record lows against the dollar in December, although it has since recovered slightly, amid investor concerns over Brazil's ability to curb public spending.

- A strengthened right -

The leftist Lula -- who beat Bolsonaro in 2022 by a razor-thin margin -- is facing a surge in strength of the global right with the return to power of US President Donald Trump.

At home, Bolsonaro retains political strength despite being barred from holding public office, and Congress has a right-wing majority.

"Today the conservative agenda is very strong in Congress," which is currently mulling the criminalization of drug possession and a possible amnesty for Bolsonaro supporters jailed for a riot against the seats of power in 2023, said Cesar.

- Losing the digital battle -

Lula and his government have struggled to remain ahead of the opposition when it comes to the digital sphere.

In January, an avalanche of disinformation about plans to track financial transactions on the beloved PIX instant money transfer system proved so tricky for the government to navigate that they backtracked entirely.

The measure, a bid to combat tax evasion, was twisted online as a plan to tax transactions and attack the poor.

Nikolas Ferreira, 28, a fiery social media star who is now a lawmaker for the right-wing Liberal Party, released a video slamming the measure that racked up more than 300 million views.

Lula's "government is reactive... it has to face a right that is always two steps ahead," said Cesar.

"The right is digital, the left remains analog."

- Tired of Lula? -

In a bid to retake control of the narrative, Lula recently appointed a new communications chief and has been energetically engaging the media and traveling around the country.

It is still unclear whether Lula will seek reelection in 2026, but there is "a certain fatigue" with the president, according to an editorial in the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper.

This has been aggravated by his health problems. The president underwent emergency surgery to stop a brain bleed in December, a few months after he suffered a fall.

"I am 79 years old... I cannot lie to anyone and much less to myself," Lula told a local radio station.

"If I am well, and I think I can be a candidate, I can run. But it is not my priority now."

H.Davis--SFF