San Francisco Frontiers - China set to post sluggish growth as doldrums deepen

Beijing in recent months announced its most aggressive support measures in years, battling headwinds that include a prolonged property market debt crisis and sluggish consumer spending.

But a survey of analysts by AFP estimated economic growth in the world's number two economy reached 4.9 percent last year -- down from the 5.2 percent recorded in 2023.

The increase would be the lowest recorded by China since 1990, excluding the financially tumultuous years of the Covid-19 pandemic.

That growth could fall to just 4.4 percent in 2025 and even drop below four percent the following year, the survey showed.

China has so far failed to achieve a highly anticipated rebound from the pandemic, with domestic spending remaining mired in a slump and indebted local governments dragging on total growth.

In a rare bright spot, official data showed earlier this week that China's exports reached a historic high last year.

But gathering storm clouds over the country's trade outlook in the year ahead mean that Beijing may not be able to count on exports to boost an otherwise lacklustre economy.

Trump has promised to unleash biting sanctions on China during a second term due to begin next week, accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices and contributing to a devastating fentanyl crisis in the United States.

Beijing has introduced a series of measures in recent months to bolster the economy, including key interest rate cuts, easing local government debt and expanding subsidy programs for household goods.

- Confidence 'crisis' -

Observers will be closely watching Friday's data release -- which will also include readings covering the final quarter of last year -- for signs that those measures succeeded in reviving activity.

China's central bank has indicated in recent weeks that 2025 will see it implement further rate cuts, part of a key shift characterised by a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance.

But analysts warn that more efforts are needed to boost domestic consumption as the outlook for Chinese exports becomes more uncertain.

"Monetary policy support alone is unlikely to right the economy," Harry Murphy Cruise from Moody's Analytics told AFP.

"China is suffering from a crisis of confidence, not one of credit; families and firms do not have the confidence in the economy to warrant borrowing, regardless of how cheap it is to do so," he wrote.

"To that end, fiscal supports are needed to grease the economy's wheels."

One component of Beijing's newest policy toolbox is a subsidy scheme -- now expanded to include more household items including rice cookers and microwave ovens -- that it hopes will encourage spending.

But recent data show that government efforts have not yet achieved a full rebound in consumer activity.

China narrowly avoided a slip into deflation in December, statistics authorities said last week, with prices rising at their slowest pace in nine months.

China emerged from a four-month period of deflation in February, a month after suffering the sharpest fall in prices for 14 years.

Deflation can pose a threat to the broader economy as consumers tend to postpone purchases under such conditions, hoping for further reductions.

P.Adams--SFF