San Francisco Frontiers - Robots set to move beyond factory as AI advances

But soon -- perhaps very soon -- these increasingly humanlike machines will handle more sophisticated tasks, freeing up people while raising complex questions about the roles of artificial intelligence that are gaining attention.

At a panel hosted by the American Association of Retired Persons at this week's Consumer Electronics Show (CES), experts described the next five years as a period where robots transition primarily from industrial sites to service settings, helping to address a worsening health care labor crunch.

Seeing robotics in places like theme parks or universities "will lead to the companion robot probably at the end of the decade," said Marc Theermann, chief strategy officer for robot company Boston Dynamics.

Cris Gardner, a vice president in futurecasting at AARP, predicted robots will provide emotional support as they enter homes and assist with daily tasks.

People "will own a generalized humanoid robot the way they would own a car," she said.

- Upheaval ahead? -

Dystopian prophesies of a robot-centered future have long featured in the public imagination. However, recent breakthroughs in generative AI have given more credibility to predictions of billions of humanoid robots in everyday life.

The centrality of robots in the coming years is "widely underappreciated," said a report from Abundance 360, a conference and education venture led by entrepreneur Peter Diamandis.

Robots could enable an "era of unprecedented abundance," lowering costs while freeing humans "to focus on creative and fulfilling pursuits," it said.

However, the analysis also identified nine sectors facing potential job displacement, including manufacturing, elder care, agriculture, education, and surgery.

"The speed at which multimodal generative AI and humanoid robot development is progressing, paired with the lack of public discourse on this subject, indicates that there will be significant job disruption and societal upheaval," it said.

Disputes over automation have been a recurring factor in labor negotiations, most recently involving US dockworkers, who reached a tentative agreement with a shippers group, averting a strike.

The International Longshoremen's Association permitted ports to add semiautonomous cranes only if more workers are hired, according to the Wall Street Journal.

- Worker shortages -

At CES, companies described robots as performing tasks that humans either shouldn't do because they are dangerous, or don't want to do because they are grueling, tedious, or unpleasant.

Hong Kong company R2C2 showcased industrial robots that can perform functions such as inspections at power plants and technician work on trains, according to San Wong, the company's founder and chief executive.

Working on trains involves "lots of grease everywhere, and it's dirty and hot" so turnover is high, San said.

Vehicle and equipment maker Oshkosh has used automation to phase out high-burnout jobs such as the finishing work on firetrucks, which requires workers to wear a mask and often leads to shoulder and elbow problems, said chief executive John Pfeifer.

Those workers have been shifted to other assembly line work, such as welding. While these jobs are currently safe, they may "one day" be automated, Pfeifer said.

"This has been the evolution of the economy for 250 years," he said. "People move into more productive ways to help the economy grow."

At CES, US agriculture machinery giant John Deere showcased autonomous vehicles developed partly in response to persistent farm labor shortages.

Automation allows farmers to focus on more challenging tasks, such as managing grain movement from a field to a storage area, said Deanna Kovar, president of Deere's worldwide agriculture and turf division.

"We need to continue to make sure we're evolving the skill sets of our employees, of our customers, so that they can take advantage of the technologies and not see them as a threat," she said.

AARP's Gardner noted that the aging US population points to a significant labor gap for caring for the next generation of seniors.

"The demand is going to be enormous, it can't be covered by human beings," said Gardner, who views improved robotics as key to enabling older people to stay independent for longer.

E.Cruz--SFF